The Matchday 4 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Qarabag (Azerbaijan) and Chelsea (England) will take place on November 5 at the Tofig Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. Qarabag vs. Chelsea: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Qarabag
The Caucasians suffered their first defeat in the current Champions League group stage only in the third round. Playing away, Gurban Gurbanov's side lost 1-3 to Athletic, despite opening the scoring in the 1st minute. Before that, the team defeated Benfica away (3-2) and Copenhagen at home (2-0). The club is in 13th place with 6 points, trailing the nearest top-8 opponent only on additional indicators.
- Qarabag has won 7 of their last 9 matches in this tournament.
- At least 3 goals have been scored in 5 of the last 6 Champions League games involving the Azerbaijanis.
- Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches involving the Caucasians in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Chris Kwakwa – Nariman Akhundzade.
Chelsea
The English team started the group stage with an away defeat to Bayern (1-3). However, they quickly bounced back in the next two rounds, both played at home. They narrowly defeated Benfica (1-0) and then thrashed Ajax 5-1. This allowed them to climb to 11th place in the standings. Interestingly, Chelsea is one goal away from reaching 350 in the Champions League, and it seems likely they will achieve this in Baku, given that they have scored in their last 18 European matches.
- Chelsea's uncompromising streak in this tournament stands at 11 matches – 7 wins and 4 losses.
- One of the teams failed to score in 5 of Chelsea's last 7 Champions League games.
- The Londoners have lost their last 3 away matches in this European competition without scoring.
Predicted lineup for Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Achiempong, Marc Cucurella – Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo – Alejandro Garnacho, Marc Guéhi, Estevao – Joao Pedro Jesus.
Injured players include defenders Levi Colwill, Benoit Badiashile, and Dario Essugo, as well as midfielders Pedro Neto and Cole Palmer.
Referee
Sebastian Gishamer (Austria)
Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 63;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 14%.
Qarabag vs. Chelsea: Match Prediction
These teams previously met in the 2017/18 Champions League group stage. Back then, the English side easily dispatched the Caucasians in both encounters (6-0 and 4-0). It is unlikely they will thrash the Azerbaijanis again, but I am confident that the visitors will take 3 points from Baku. Qarabag has a strong home record in this tournament, though it was achieved in the qualifying rounds. Additionally, in their last 7 European matchups with Premier League representatives, the Caucasians have only suffered defeats.
Chelsea is in excellent form. They won the derby against Tottenham over the weekend, allowing them to closely challenge for second place. Furthermore, the Londoners have won 14 of their last 16 European matches, with only 2 losses. The level of leagues and squads clearly favors the English team, so my prediction is Chelsea with a handicap (-1).
