NFL Point Spreads

Making bets with a handicap, or betting against the spread, is popular in many sports but especially in football and the NFL. Although learning new betting terms and styles can be difficult, betting against the spread is not a difficult concept.

Due to its popularity, it will be one of the markets listed on the main lines of a game, sometimes listed even before the regular main outcome of the  game. Mastering spread betting takes focus, patience and total precision as the few points that you pick up or lose (depending on which side you pick) will go a long way. 

About the Spread 

Let us begin by explaining the core concept of how spread betting works. In almost every NFL game, there will be an underdog or team that is expected to lose and a favorite, the team that is expected to win. What the handicap intends to do is even both teams chances of losing or winning. It is normally very effective at its job.

So let us take an example in a game between Denver and Cincinnati:

• Denver Broncos -7.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals +7.5

What will happen is that number of points will be subtracted from Denver’s final score and 7.5 will also be added to Cincinnati’s. If the actual game ends 35-28 in favor of Denver, then the score for your wager on the Bengals would be 35.5-35 in favor of Cincinnati. In this situation, you would have effectively used the spread to steal a win. 

So before betting against the spread on the NFL, it is important to take this into account. It is also important to note that 30% of NFL games end with a difference of only three or seven points. Therefore when you are undertaking a spread of 3.5 or 7.5, this is no small feat. It is likely that these few extra points will actually end up determining your entire bet. 

How the Spread is Used

Most sportsbooks will add .5 onto all of the handicap numbers to ensure that all bets will either win or lose. However, in the event that a particular sportsbook offers handicaps of solid numbers such as three, six or ten then you will have a little bit of added comfort.

Take the previous scenario with a handicap of seven instead of 7.5. In the exact same scenario, the bet would end as a draw with both teams even at 35. This is where your bet will be saved, as rather than winning or losing your money, you will instead be given a 100% refund of your original stake.

Therefore, not only do you as the player need to get the spread exactly right, but the people setting the spread need to be even better. They will ultimately determine how much money the bookmaker stands to make.

The sportsbook in most cases will stand to make a profit no matter what happens during the game. This is because of the built-in margin in the odds. With handicap betting, since the chances of both teams are theoretically equal, the odds are usually also very close.

Normally, they will be -110 for both sides. If the bets on the game also end up being equal, then the sportsbook will easily walk away profitable. They will pay the winning side with the losing side’s money and take the margin home with them. If the margin is 10% or over, this ends up being a good day for the bookie, so long as the spreads are set right. 

A lot of the strategies you will implement to do this will seem obvious, but there are a couple of tricks that are necessary to know when betting on the spread. Please note that none of these strategies will make you a winner 100% of the time. They are simply there to give you the player a much better chance at ending the night with a profit. 

Getting Prepared

Before even taking the handicap into account, you must be well-prepared to bet on the game itself without any added or subtracted points. This means that you need to study all of the varying statistics going into the game. Once you know all of these, you will be ready to determine whether you want to take the added risk of a handicap as well. 

Home-field advantage is one of the first things that both you and the bookmaker will be looking at. This actually does give a big advantage to the home team. Especially in the NFL, where home teams will win games 57.1% of the time. 

Below we have placed two tables displaying the teams who play the best and worst against the spread while at home since 2005: 

Best: 

Worst:

The other thing important to note from the teams playing is whether they are division rivals or not. If they play in the same division, then the score of the game will likely be much closer than in non-conference games.

There will also be a high chance that the team which won the first time (division rivals play two separate times) will lose the second game. Just as it is important to look at every team’s previous games, it is even more important to look at team’s previous matchups with each other (especially true with division rivals).

Making both teams equal for a game means a heavier reliance on the knowledge of the player. Once you start to get a good understanding of the game at hand without the handicap, you can begin to look at more complex bets like adding a handicap. 

Conclusion

With a better understanding of the sport as well as knowing what to look for when weighing a bet you should be able to make more confident decisions. Although no strategy is a guaranteed win all of the time, increasing your chances to win while also being able to undertake higher odds will give you a big advantage long-term.

Beating the sportsbook is a nice feeling, but being able to beat them for more money is even better. Simply remember to keep your head when betting and to enjoy it, win or loss.