Matchday 5 of the 2024/25 Conference League group stage between Astana (Kazakhstan) and Chelsea (England) will take place on December 12 at the Central Stadium in Almaty. Astana vs. Chelsea: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Sven Jablonski (Germany)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 16;
Penalties – 0%.
Predicted lineups for Astana vs. Chelsea
Astana (5-2-3): Josip Condric – Yan Vorogovsky, Aleksa Amanovic, Branimir Kalaica, Kipras Kazukolovas, Karlo Bartolec – Nazmi Gripshi, Max Ebong – Usman Kamara, Chinedu Jeffrey, Marin Tomasov.
Chelsea (4-4-2): Filip Jorgensen – Axel Disasi, Benoit Badiashile, Tosin Adarabioyo, Renato Veiga – Cesare Casadei, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jadon Sancho, Mykhailo Mudryk – Marc Guehi, Christopher Nkunku.
Each team's starting lineup from their last match in this tournament is listed.
Astana
The Kazakh side held Vitoria Guimaraes to a 1-1 draw at home in the last round. This result ended a two-match losing streak in the Conference League, during which they lost away to New Saints (0-2) and Pafos (0-1). With four points, Astana is in 23rd place. It's also worth noting that Grigory Babayan's team has scored only two goals, just one more than HJK, which has the weakest attack in this stage of the European competition.
- No more than three goals have been scored in Astana's last six Conference League matches.
- At least one team failed to score in 5 of Astana's last 6 games in this tournament.
- The club hasn't conceded a goal in the first half in nine previous home matches in this European competition.
Chelsea
The Londoners have achieved a perfect record after four rounds. Only Legia has also collected 12 points. The English side comfortably won all their group stage matches in the Conference League: defeating Gent (4-2) and Noah (8-0) at home, and Panathinaikos (4-1) and Heidenheim (2-0) away. Enzo Maresca's team has far outpaced all competitors in terms of goals scored, with Chelsea netting 18 goals (Legia, the closest rival, has only 11).
Midfielder Cesare Casadei will miss the match due to suspension.
- The English side's uncompromising run in European competitions stands at 14 matches (10 wins and 4 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Chelsea's last 10 European matches.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 13 of Chelsea's last 16 matches in the Champions League and Conference League.
Astana vs. Chelsea: Match Prediction
The last time the Kazakh side hosted an opponent of this caliber was in November 2019, when they faced Manchester United in the Europa League group stage. They managed to defeat the Premier League representative 2-1. It's worth noting that Astana is unbeaten in five consecutive matches in this tournament at home, with 4 wins and 1 draw. The Londoners have played only three away matches in this tournament – two wins in the group stage and a loss to Servette in the playoff qualifying round for the main stage of the Conference League (1-2).
I predict the hosts will avoid a heavy defeat. Astana has never lost by a margin of three or more goals in their last 17 home European matches, and in the Conference League, they have only lost by two goals once at home. Meanwhile, the English side has not won by a large margin in 17 of their last 18 away European matches. I also expect Chelsea to field a second-string lineup and play without much enthusiasm, as the match will be played in temperatures around -10 degrees Celsius.
My prediction – Astana with a handicap (+2)
