The second leg of the 2025/26 Europa League round-of-16 tie between Aston Villa (England) and Lille (France) will take place on 19 March at Villa Park in Birmingham. The score in the first leg was 1:0 in favour of Aston Villa. Aston Villa vs Lille: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa secured an acceptable result for themselves in the first leg, beating their opponents on their own ground 1:0. At home, the team will be enough not to lose in 90 minutes to progress to the next round. Interestingly, the Birmingham club are playing in European competition for the third straight year after a long break, and each time they have reached at least the quarter-finals: in the 2022/23 season they made the Europa Conference League semi-finals, and a year later they went through to the Champions League quarter-finals. It is also worth noting that Aston Villa’s winning run in the Europa League stands at six matches.
- In total, the club have already played nine matches in this tournament, recording eight wins and one defeat.
- A maximum of three goals were scored in eight of Aston Villa’s previous nine games in this competition.
- On home soil in the Europa League, the Birmingham side have won four in a row.
Potential Aston Villa Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Emiliano Martinez – Lamare Bogarde, Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, Lucas Digne – Amadou Onana, Douglas Luiz – Emiliano Buendia, Morgan Rogers, Jadon Sancho – Ollie Watkins.
Midfielders Harvey Elliott, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara are out injured.
Lille
The first leg was not particularly entertaining (the xG figure was 0.43:0.51) and could easily have ended goalless, but the English side managed to snatch victory thanks to a single goal. Most interestingly, that was the opponent’s only shot on target. It is a curious run, too: Lille have now played out a 1:0 scoreline for the fourth match in a row in the Europa League (winning twice themselves and suffering two defeats). To progress to the next round, the club will need to win by at least two goals in 90 minutes, while a one-goal win would take the tie into extra time. We should also note that this is the third straight season the French side have reached the spring stage of European competition, but they only went further in 2023/24 (in the Europa Conference League).
- The team have avoided draws in this tournament for 15 matches (six wins and nine defeats).
- At least one of the sides failed to score in seven of Lille’s previous eight Europa League games.
- The French side have won five of their last seven away matches in this competition.
Potential Lille Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Berke Ozer – Romain Perraud, Tiago Santos, Chancel Mbemba, Aissa Mandi – Benjamin Andre, Nabil Bentaleb – Ngalayel Mukau, Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, Gaetan Perrin – Olivier Giroud.
Referee
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 22;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 50%.
Aston Villa vs Lille: Match Prediction
The Birmingham club have been confident in their debut Europa League campaign. At the same time, they have not enjoyed total dominance over any opponent. In their last five matches in this tournament, the English side have won exclusively by a one-goal margin. Aston Villa were clearly fortunate to win the first leg, and there are doubts they will be able to repeat it in the return match. Therefore, we recommend a one-goal handicap in favour of the visitors.
Lille have been inconsistent in the Europa League, and they have actually lost more often. At the same time, in the French side’s last 21 matches in this competition, they have not once lost by a margin of two goals or more. Moreover, even away from home the club have avoided defeats by such a margin in 11 straight Europa League games. In addition, Aston Villa have not won by two or more goals in their last 10 official matches.
Prediction: Lille (+1)
* For each team, the starting XI from their last match in this tournament is listed.
