The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round of 16 tie between Atalanta and Bayern Munich will take place on 10 March at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. Atalanta vs Bayern Munich: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atalanta
The Bergamo club have reached the Champions League round of 16 for the second time in their history. In the previous round, Raffaele Palladino’s side were not deterred by a setback in Dortmund (0:2) and, on home soil, the team got the required result – 4:1. It is worth noting that the win over Borussia ended a run of three straight defeats for the Italians in the Champions League. However, the club have conceded in a fifth consecutive match in this competition. Atalanta have only once reached the Champions League quarter-finals, doing so in the 2019/20 season. The Bergamo side have also faced German teams five times in European play-off ties and progressed on three occasions.
- The Italians have scored in 5 of their last 7 Champions League matches.
- Both teams to score has landed in 5 of Atalanta’s previous 6 home games in the Champions League.
- On home soil in this competition, the club have avoided defeat in 5 of their last 7 matches (4 wins, 1 draw).
Potential Atalanta Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Sead Kolasinac, Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Gianluca Scamacca, Lazar Samardzic.
Midfielders Ederson and Charles De Ketelaere, along with forward Giacomo Raspadori, are injured. Defender Giorgio Scalvini is suspended.
Bayern Munich
Vincent Kompany’s men finished second in the league phase. The Munich side recorded seven wins and lost to Arsenal, who ended up top. It is worth noting that against the Londoners, the team conceded more than two goals for the only time in their last 15 Champions League matches. Bayern Munich themselves, with 22 goals scored, are among the top three highest-scoring clubs. Bayern Munich have got through the round of 16 in 13 of the previous 14 seasons. What is more, in their last 24 matches at this stage, the Munich side have suffered only two defeats.
- The team have scored at least twice in 8 of their previous 9 games in this competition.
- The Germans have won 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Champions League (1 draw, 1 defeat).
- Bayern Munich have conceded in five consecutive away games in the Champions League.
Potential Bayern Munich Lineup (4-5-1)
Jonas Urbig – Konrad Laimer, Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min Jae – Michael Olise, Lennart Karl, Joshua Kimmich, Luis Diaz, Aleksandar Pavlovic – Nicolas Jackson.
Defender Hiroki Ito and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer are injured.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 8 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Yellow cards per match on average – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match on average – 21;
Penalties – 40%.
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich: Match Prediction
The Bergamo side have produced excellent defensive performances in the Serie A, but on the European stage it is not always possible to maintain such a high level. Raffaele Palladino’s men have failed to keep a clean sheet in five Champions League matches in a row. Even at home, the numbers do not improve: the Italians have conceded in five of their last six games, and the only side they managed to shut out in that spell was Slavia, who are among the two lowest-scoring clubs in the current edition of the tournament.
The Munich side are delivering outstanding attacking output. This season, across all competitions, the team have already scored more than 100 goals, and in 8 of their previous 9 Champions League matches Vincent Kompany’s men have found the net at least twice. However, such an attacking approach often creates problems at the back. Even in the Bundesliga in 2026, the Munich side have conceded in 9 of 10 matches. In the Champions League, meanwhile, they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five away games. Atalanta, who scored four goals against another German representative in the previous round, are sure to take advantage of this.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
