Matchday 6 of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League group stage between Atalanta (Italy) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on December 10 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. Atalanta vs. Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 30%.
Predicted lineups for Atalanta vs. Real Madrid
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Marco Carnesecchi – Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien, Sead Kolasinac – Raoul Bellanova, Marten de Roon, Ederson Lourenco, Matteo Ruggeri – Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere – Mateo Retegui.
Real Madrid (4-5-1): Thibaut Courtois – Lucas Vazquez, Raul Asensio, Fran Garcia, Antonio Rudiger – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham, Aurelien Tchouameni, Vinicius Junior – Kylian Mbappe.
Atalanta
The Bergamaschi thrashed Young Boys 6-1 in the last round. This was the second big win for the Italians in the group stage of the Champions League, having previously defeated Shakhtar 3-0. Notably, both victories were achieved away from home. Atalanta also beat Stuttgart on their ground 2-0. However, at their own stadium, the club has only managed draws so far – against Arsenal and Celtic, both with a 0-0 scoreline. It's worth mentioning that the goal conceded against the Swiss side was the only one for Gian Piero Gasperini's team in this Champions League campaign.
Defender Giorgio Scalvini, midfielder Juan Cuadrado, and forward Gianluca Scamacca will miss the game due to injuries.
- In the last 8 matches in this European competition, Atalanta has lost only once (3 wins and 4 draws).
- The Bergamaschi have failed to win the first half in nine consecutive home matches in the Champions League (5 draws and 4 losses).
- However, in the second half, the Italians have not lost in eight consecutive games in this tournament (4 wins and 4 draws).
Real Madrid
The Spaniards have lost their last two matches in the group stage of the Champions League. First, the team was defeated at home by Milan 1-3, and then away by Liverpool 0-2. The club hadn't lost two consecutive Champions League matches since April 2022. After five rounds, Madrid has only two victories, achieved at home against Stuttgart 3-1 and Borussia Dortmund 5-2. With six points, Real is only in 24th place in the standings.
Defenders Ferland Mendy, David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, and Eder Militao, as well as midfielder Eduardo Camavinga, will not play in this match due to injuries.
- Both teams have scored in regular time in 8 of Real's last 11 Champions League games.
- The club has failed to win away in regular time in four consecutive matches in this tournament (2 draws and 2 losses).
- At least two goals have been scored in the second half in 11 of Real Madrid's last 14 away Champions League matches.
Atalanta vs. Real Madrid: Match Prediction
In August this year, the opponents met in the UEFA Super Cup, where Madrid defeated the Italians 2-0. Additionally, the teams played two more matches in the 2020/21 Champions League playoffs, with the Spaniards emerging victorious again (3-1 and 1-0). Despite some issues in this year's Champions League, Madrid, in my opinion, should advance to the next stage of the European competition, specifically to the round of 16. To achieve this, Real needs to win the remaining three rounds. The upcoming match in Italy will be the toughest, while the subsequent games against Salzburg and Brest are expected to be easier.
As for Atalanta, they perform better away in the Champions League, while at their stadium, the club doesn't often delight their fans – in the previous 10 home games in this European competition, the Italians have only won once, and that was against Young Boys (5 draws and 4 losses). However, I do not recommend betting on a clean win for the visitors, as the Spaniards have injury concerns.
My prediction – Real Madrid with a handicap (0)
