Matchday 7 of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Atalanta (Italy) and Sturm (Austria) will take place on January 21 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. Atalanta vs. Sturm: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Donatas Rumšas (Lithuania)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.3;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 29%.
Predicted lineups for Atalanta vs. Sturm
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Marco Carnesecchi – Isak Hien, Berat Djimsiti, Sead Kolašinac – Marco Pašalić, Marten de Roon, Ederson Lourenço, Davide Zappacosta – Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere – Mateo Retegui.
Sturm (4-3-1-2): Daniil Khudyakov – Dimitri Lavalée, Gregory Wüthrich, Arijan Malić, Niklas Geyrhofer – Toci Chukwuani, Jon Gorenc-Stanković, Malik Yalkuye – William Böving – Otar Kiteishvili, Sidi Yatta.
Atalanta
In the last round, Gian Piero Gasperini's side lost 2-3 at home to Real Madrid. As a result, Atalanta ended their five-match unbeaten run in the Champions League (3 wins, 2 draws). The team has scored at least twice in eight of their last ten matches in this competition. In the standings, the Italians have 11 points and are in 13th place. A win will secure their place in the playoffs.
Defender Odilon Kossounou, midfielder Nicolò Zaniolo, and forward Gianluca Scamacca will miss the game due to injuries.
- The team has not won in regular time in their last five home games in the Champions League (3 draws, 2 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 7 of the last 10 home matches in this competition.
- Atalanta players have not scored in the first half in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the Champions League.
Sturm
Jürgen Säumel's side lost 2-3 away to Lille in the last round. As a result, Sturm suffered their seventh defeat in regular time in their last eight Champions League matches. The team scored more than one goal for the first time in 16 previous matches in this competition. The Austrians have only three points and are in 29th place in the standings. If they fail to beat Atalanta, they will lose all chances of reaching the playoffs.
Defender Max Johnston will not play due to injury. It's worth noting that Sturm sold forward Mika Beret during the winter transfer window, who, with two goals, is the team's top scorer in this Champions League.
- The club has not won in regular time in their last 11 away matches in the Champions League (2 draws, 9 losses).
- No more than three goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 6 of the last 8 away matches in this competition.
- The number "1" appeared in the scoreline at the end of regular time in 6 of the last 8 away matches for the Austrians in this competition.
Atalanta vs. Sturm: Match Prediction
At home, the Italians prefer an attacking style and aim to dominate against opponents of any level. Despite not scoring in two home matches in this Champions League campaign, Atalanta accumulated an xG of 4.13 over these two games, according to statistics. Additionally, Gian Piero Gasperini's side scored twice against Real Madrid.
Sturm deserves credit for fighting until the end, even in losing efforts in this year's Champions League. The team has shown creativity in away matches, failing to score only against Borussia Dortmund in three away games. As long as the Austrians have a theoretical chance of reaching the playoffs, I expect them to capitalize on it. I anticipate that Sturm will not sit back in their penalty area and will manage to breach the Italian defense at least once.
I anticipate both teams will score in this encounter, so my prediction: Both teams to score – yes
