The Matchday 3 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Qarabag (Azerbaijan) will take place on October 22 at the San Mames Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Qarabag: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic Bilbao
Ernesto Valverde's side suffered defeats in the first two matches, facing Arsenal (0:2) and Borussia Dortmund (1:4). Consequently, the team's losing streak in European competitions has reached four matches, a first in their history. The Basques conceded 13 goals during this period. However, the Spaniards have been regularly finding the net, scoring in 21 of their last 22 international fixtures. In the standings, the club is in 34th place and is among the bottom five in terms of scoring.
- At home, the team has won 6 of their last 8 European matches (2 losses).
- The Spaniards opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home international matches.
- Athletic has not conceded more than one goal in 6 of their last 8 home European matches.
Predicted lineup for Athletic Bilbao (4-3-3)
Unai Simon – Yuri Berchiche, Daniel Vivian, Aymeric Laporte, Jesus Areso – Unai Gomez, Mikel Haurregui, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Robert Navarro, Gorka Guruzeta, Inaki Williams.
Midfielder Benat Prados will miss the match due to injury.
Qarabag
The Azerbaijanis have not dropped any points. After defeating Benfica away (3:2), the team proved stronger than Copenhagen at home (2:0). Notably, Gurban Gurbanov's side kept a clean sheet for the first time in their last five Champions League matches. Despite these defensive metrics, Qarabag continues to deliver excellent results, winning 7 of their last 8 matches in this tournament (1 loss). During this period, the Aghdam side scored at least two goals in five matches. In the standings, the Azerbaijanis are in 6th place.
- At least one goal has been scored in both halves in Qarabag's last 5 Champions League matches.
- The team has not drawn away in 13 matches in this tournament (8 wins, 5 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of Qarabag's last 6 away Champions League matches.
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicallo, Emmanuel Addei – Camilo Duran.
Referee
Igor Pajac (Croatia)
Matches – 5 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 17;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 20%.
Athletic vs. Qarabag: Match Prediction
The Azerbaijanis were underdogs even in their home match against Copenhagen. However, Gurban Gurbanov's side defied the odds, securing their second consecutive victory in the group stage. Bookmakers continue to underestimate Qarabag, offering attractive odds even for a single goal from the team. Meanwhile, the club has an 8-match scoring streak in the Champions League, scoring at least twice in 6 of those games.
Meanwhile, the Basques do not excel in defense. In the current Champions League campaign, the team has already conceded 6 goals, and at home, Athletic has failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 international matches. Overall, this season, the Spaniards have kept a clean sheet in only two of their 12 official matches. With such defensive issues, it's unclear how Ernesto Valverde's side will contain their next opponent's attack.
My prediction: Qarabag Individual Total Over 0.5
