The first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona will take place on 12 February at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid began their cup campaign with hard-fought wins over Atletico Baleares (3:2) and Deportivo (1:0), but they came through the quarter-finals far more convincingly. Although the home side travelled to face a strong Real Betis, they surprisingly thrashed their opponents 5:0. That result took Atletico Madrid into the semi-finals of the national cup for the third season in a row. It is worth noting that in the previous two campaigns the club failed to reach the showpiece, and last season they were knocked out by Barcelona. Their last appearance in the final dates back to 2013, when Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid and lifted their 10th Copa del Rey title.
- The club have avoided defeat with a (+1.5) handicap in 10 Copa del Rey matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 13 of the last 16 home games involving the Madrid outfit in this tournament.
- At least one team failed to score in six of Atletico Madrid's last eight matches in the Copa del Rey.
Potential Atletico Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)*
Jan Oblak – Marcos Llorente, Jose Maria Gimenez, David Hanczko, Matteo Ruggeri – Rodrigo Mendoza, Koke, Giuliano Simeone, Thiago Almada – Julian Alvarez, Ademola Lookman.
Midfielders Nicolas Gonzalez, Pablo Barrios and Johnny Cardoso are unavailable due to injury.
Barcelona
Barcelona have also come through three rounds of the Copa del Rey, but they have not yet faced La Liga opposition. Thanks to a kind draw in the quarter-finals, the away team took on Albacete, though the match still proved difficult: Barcelona edged it by a single goal (2:1). Earlier in the competition, the club beat Guadalajara and Racing by the same 2:0 scoreline. Now Barcelona will play in the Copa del Rey semi-finals for the third time in the last four seasons. Last year, they lifted the trophy after beating Real Madrid, and overall Barcelona have 32 titles to their name - the best record in the tournament's history.
- The club are unbeaten in nine matches in the Copa del Rey (eight wins, one draw).
- Barcelona's away scoring run in this tournament stands at 15 matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in 12 of Barcelona's last 13 Copa del Rey games.
Potential Barcelona Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Joan Garcia – Jules Kounde, Pau Cubarsi, Eric Garcia, Alex Balde – Marc Casado, Fermin Lopez – Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Marcus Rashford – Robert Lewandowski.
Defender Andreas Christensen, along with midfielders Pedri and Gavi, are not ready due to injury. The participation of forwards Marcus Rashford and Raphinha is in doubt.
Referee
Juan Martinez Munuera (Spain)
Matches - 11 (La Liga and the Copa del Rey, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) - 47;
Average yellow cards per match - 4.3;
Red cards shown - 2;
Average fouls per match - 29;
Penalties - 45%.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Match Prediction
Atletico Madrid had no issues in the quarter-finals, and after that demolition of Real Betis the club have just one defeat in their last 10 Copa del Rey matches. However, it is important to say that in the only unsuccessful game during this spell, the home team came up against Barcelona - also at the semi-final stage. Historically, the visitors are an awkward opponent for Atletico Madrid: in the last 10 head-to-head meetings across La Liga and the Copa del Rey, Diego Simeone's side have lost eight times.
And Barcelona are not fazed by playing in front of hostile stands either: since 2023, the away side have won four straight matches at Atletico Madrid. The club's unbeaten run in the Copa del Rey stands at nine games, eight of which have been victories. Even away from home, the visiting team have maintained their level and have not lost in normal time in 15 matches in this tournament (13 wins, two draws), and in the last six games Barcelona have consistently beaten their opponents, including Atletico Madrid (1:0).
Prediction: Barcelona Draw No Bet
* For each team, the starting XI from their previous match is listed.
