The first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona will take place on 12 February at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid began their cup run with hard-fought wins over Atletico Baleares (3:2) and Deportivo (1:0), but they came through the quarter-finals far more convincingly. Although the away team travelled to take on the solid Real Betis, they surprisingly cruised to a 5:0 rout. In doing so, Atletico reached the Copa del Rey semi-finals for the third season in a row. It is worth noting that the club failed to make the final in each of the previous two campaigns, and last season they were knocked out by Barcelona. Their most recent appearance in the final came in 2013, when Atletico beat Real Madrid to win their 10th Copa del Rey title.
- The club have won with a (+1.5) handicap in 10 Copa del Rey matches in a row.
- At least three goals have been scored in 13 of the previous 16 home games for the hosts in this competition.
- At least one team failed to score in six of Atletico’s last eight matches in the Copa del Rey.
Potential Atletico Madrid Lineup (4-4-2)*
Jan Oblak – Marcos Llorente, Jose Maria Gimenez, David Hanco, Matteo Ruggeri – Rodrigo Mendoza, Koke, Giuliano Simeone, Thiago Almada – Julian Alvarez, Ademola Lookman.
Midfielders Nicolas Gonzalez, Pablo Barrios and Johnny Cardoso are unavailable due to injury.
Barcelona
Barcelona have also come through three rounds of the Copa del Rey, but they have not yet faced La Liga opposition. Thanks to a favourable draw in the quarter-finals, the away team played Albacete, although that match still proved tricky: Barcelona edged it by a single goal (2:1). Earlier, the club beat Guadalajara and Racing by the same 2:0 scoreline. Now Barcelona will feature in the Copa del Rey semi-finals for the third time in the last four seasons. Last year, they lifted the trophy after beating Real Madrid, and overall Barcelona have won the competition 32 times — the best record in the tournament’s history.
- The club are unbeaten in nine matches in the Copa del Rey (eight wins, one draw).
- Barcelona’s away scoring run in this competition stands at 15 matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in 12 of Barcelona’s last 13 Copa del Rey games.
Potential Barcelona Lineup (4-2-3-1)*
Joan Garcia – Jules Kounde, Pau Cubarsi, Eric Garcia, Alex Balde – Marc Casado, Fermin Lopez – Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Marcus Rashford – Robert Lewandowski.
Defender Andreas Christensen, as well as midfielders Pedri and Gavi, are not ready due to injury. The participation of forward Raphinha is in doubt.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Match Prediction
Atletico had no issues in the quarter-finals, and after thrashing Real Betis the club have suffered just one defeat in their last 10 Copa del Rey matches. However, it is important to note that in the only setback in that spell, the home team faced Barcelona — also at the semi-final stage. Historically, Barcelona have been an awkward opponent for Atletico: across the last 10 head-to-head meetings in La Liga and the Copa del Rey, Diego Simeone’s men have lost eight times.
Barcelona are not even fazed by playing away from home: since 2023, they have won four straight visits to Atletico. The club’s unbeaten run in the Copa del Rey stretches to nine matches, eight of which have been victories. Even on the road, Barcelona maintain their level and have avoided defeat in 15 consecutive games in this competition in 90 minutes (13 wins, two draws), and in each of their last six matches they have consistently beaten their opponents — including Atletico (1:0).
Prediction: Barcelona Draw No Bet
* For each team, the starting XI is from their previous match.
