The Matchday 7 encounter of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Atletico Madrid (Spain) and Bayer Leverkusen (Germany) will take place on January 21 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium. Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 17;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.4;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 17;
Penalties – 14%.
Predicted lineups for Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Jan Oblak – Clément Lenglet, José María Giménez, Javi Galán, Marcos Llorente – Pablo Barrios, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Conor Gallagher – Antoine Griezmann, Julián Álvarez.
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1): Lukáš Hrádecký – Piero Hincapié, Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba – Alejandro Grimaldo, Exequiel Palacios, Granit Xhaka, Jeremie Frimpong – Florian Wirtz, Nathan Tella – Patrik Schick.
Atletico Madrid
The Spaniards have climbed to 11th place in the standings and are just one point away from the top eight, although after three rounds of the group stage, Madrid had only 3 points (1 win and 2 losses). However, Diego Simeone's side then achieved three consecutive victories, defeating PSG (2-1), Sparta Prague (6-0), and Slovan Bratislava (3-1). Notably, Atletico has not won four consecutive Champions League matches since November 2016. Also noteworthy is their attack, which has scored 14 goals after 6 rounds (only three teams have scored more in the competition).
Forward Alexander Sørloth will miss the game due to injury.
- In their last 16 Champions League matches, Atletico has suffered only 4 losses in regular time (10 wins and 2 draws).
- At least three goals have been scored in 90 minutes in nine of Atletico's last matches in this tournament.
- In 8 of their last 9 European matches, one team led with a clean sheet at halftime.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen played their last two rounds at home and maximized the advantage. The team thrashed Salzburg (5-0) and secured an important victory over Inter Milan (1-0). In the current Champions League, the Germans have won 4 times, all with clean sheets, and also drew with Brest (1-1) and lost to Liverpool (0-4). Xabi Alonso's side is in 4th place in the standings. If they avoid defeat in the upcoming match, they will guarantee themselves a spot in the Champions League playoffs.
Due to injuries, forwards Amine Adli, Victor Boniface, and Martin Terrier, as well as defender Jeanuel Belocian, will miss the match.
- At least one team failed to score in 12 of Bayer's last 14 matches in this tournament.
- Leverkusen has suffered only one loss in their last eight Champions League matches (4 wins and 3 draws).
- A maximum of three goals have been scored in 15 of the club's last 19 Champions League matches.
Atletico Madrid vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Match Prediction
This upcoming match is crucial for both teams. Both clubs have a strong chance of reaching the top eight, and a victory will maximize their prospects. In the final round, both teams face opponents from the lower part of the standings, increasing the likelihood of securing an additional three points. I anticipate that the home advantage will be key in this game.
Madrid has lost only once in their last 13 home Champions League matches, with 8 wins and 4 draws. It's also worth noting that Atletico frequently troubles their opponents at home, scoring at least two goals in 8 of their last 9 home matches in this tournament. Meanwhile, the Germans rarely win away in this competition, with just three victories in their last 19 away matches (7 draws and 9 losses).
Additionally, Atletico is in excellent form and has lost only once at home this season in official competitions (10 wins and 2 draws). Moreover, Madrid has never lost to Leverkusen at home this century, with 2 wins and 3 draws in the Champions League and Europa League.
My prediction – Atletico Madrid with a handicap (0)
