The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Atletico Madrid (Spain) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 12 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium. The first match ended with a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side, despite a 1-2 loss in the first leg, still have a decent chance to progress in the Champions League. They need to defeat their city rivals at home by at least two goals. If this derby ends with a one-goal victory for Atletico, extra time will be required. It's worth noting that the defeat ended Atletico's five-match winning streak in this tournament. Additionally, the club has reached the Champions League quarter-finals in the last three seasons.
- The team's uncompromising run in regular time in this European competition counts 16 matches (11 wins and 5 losses).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico's last 7 Champions League games.
- At least three goals have been scored in the last 12 matches of Atletico in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Axel Witsel, Jose Maria Gimenez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.
Midfielder Koke and defender Clement Lenglet, who were doubtful for the return leg, have rejoined the group and are preparing to participate in the match.
Real Madrid
After defeating their opponents in the first leg, the club extended their winning streak in this tournament to six games. To advance to the next stage of the European competition, Carlo Ancelotti's side only needs not to lose in the return leg. Interestingly, Real has only once progressed to the next stage of the Champions League playoffs after winning the first leg by a one-goal margin at the Santiago Bernabeu. Additionally, the Madrid team has qualified for the quarter-finals of this European competition in the last four seasons.
- At least three goals were scored in Real's last six Champions League games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the club's last 9 matches in this tournament.
- Madrid has scored two or more goals in their last six matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asensio, Federico Valverde – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Jude Bellingham – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappe.
Due to injuries, defenders Jesus Vallejo, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are out. Midfielder Brahim Diaz (virus) is doubtful for the match.
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 22;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: Match Prediction
Both teams deserve to progress, but only one Madrid club will reach the quarter-finals. In my opinion, it will be Real. It is quite telling that Carlo Ancelotti has eliminated Diego Simeone in knockout encounters five times – more than any other coach in the world (in 2014 – in the Copa del Rey semi-final and the Champions League final, in 2015 – in the Champions League quarter-final, in 2023 – in the Copa del Rey quarter-final, and last year – in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final).
I will also highlight the head-to-head statistics of these opponents at the official level. In the last 22 encounters, Atletico has won only twice. In the remaining matches, Real has secured six victories, while 14 ended in a draw. Considering the dominance of draws in the Madrid derby, I suggest that the return leg in the Round of 16 will also end in a draw, which would favor the visitors. However, I will not bet on a draw. Based on Real's better performance in the first leg, I predict that Carlo Ancelotti's side will not lose in 90 minutes.
My prediction – Real Madrid win or draw
