The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Atletico Madrid (Spain) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 12 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium. The first match ended with a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side, despite a 1-2 loss in the first leg, still have a decent chance to continue their Champions League campaign. They need to defeat their city rivals at home by at least two goals. If Atletico wins by exactly one goal, extra time will be played. The loss ended a five-match winning streak for Atletico in this tournament. It's also worth noting that the club has reached the Champions League quarter-finals in the last three seasons.
- The team's uncompromising streak in regular time in this European competition counts 16 matches (11 wins and 5 losses).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Atletico's last 7 Champions League games.
- At least three goals were scored in 12 of Atletico's previous 90-minute matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Axel Witsel, Jose Maria Gimenez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.
Midfielder Koke and defender Clement Lenglet, who were doubtful for the second leg, have returned to full training and are preparing to participate in the match.
Real Madrid
After defeating their opponent in the first leg, Real Madrid extended their winning streak in this tournament to six matches. To advance to the next stage of the European competition, Carlo Ancelotti's side only needs to avoid defeat in the second leg. Interestingly, Real Madrid has only once progressed to the next stage of the Champions League knockout rounds after winning the first leg by a one-goal margin at the Santiago Bernabeu. Additionally, the Madrid team has reached the quarter-finals of this European competition in the last four seasons.
- At least three goals were scored in Real Madrid's last six Champions League games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of the club's last 9 matches in this tournament.
- Madrid has scored two or more goals in their last six matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rüdiger, Raul Asensio, Federico Valverde – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Lucas Vazquez – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Endrick Felipe.
Due to injuries, defenders Jesus Vallejo, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are unavailable. Midfielder Brahim Diaz (virus) is doubtful, and there are concerns about forward Kylian Mbappe's availability for the starting lineup due to an injury sustained in training on Tuesday.
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 22;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.1;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: Match Prediction
Both teams deserve to progress, but only one Madrid club will make it to the quarter-finals. In my opinion, that will be Real Madrid. It's noteworthy that Carlo Ancelotti has eliminated Diego Simeone in knockout ties five times – more than any other coach in the world (in 2014 – in the Copa del Rey semi-final and the Champions League final, in 2015 – in the Champions League quarter-final, in 2023 – in the Copa del Rey quarter-final, and last year – in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final).
I'll also highlight the head-to-head statistics of these opponents at the official level. In the last 22 head-to-head encounters, Atletico has won only twice. In the other matches, Real Madrid secured six wins, and there were 14 draws. Considering the dominance of draws in the Madrid derby, I predict that the second leg of the Round of 16 will also end in a draw, which would favor the visitors. Nevertheless, I won't bet on a draw. Based on Real Madrid's superior performance in the first leg, I predict that Carlo Ancelotti's side will not lose in regulation time.
My prediction – Real Madrid win or draw
