The Matchday 16 La Liga fixture between Atletico Madrid and Valencia will take place on December 13 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid – Valencia: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Atletico Madrid
The start of winter has not gone well for the club. In the autumn Atletico went unbeaten, stretching an unbeaten run to 13 matches (9 wins, 4 draws) and recording six straight victories, but they have collected no points in their first two December fixtures. The Madrid side have lost two La Liga games in a row for the first time since March. The club remain fourth in the table while rivals are pulling away; the gap to leaders Barcelona has grown to nine points. It is worth noting Atletico ended a 17-match scoring run in La Liga. Despite recent results, Diego Simeone’s side remain one of the division’s most reliable teams — they have conceded 15 goals this season, fewer only than Villarreal (13). Also, Atletico remain unbeaten at home in La Liga this season: eight home matches have yielded 22 points, second only to Barcelona (24).
- At least one side failed to score in 6 of Atletico’s last 8 La Liga matches.
- Atletico are unbeaten in 12 home league matches (11 wins, 1 draw).
- The club’s uncompromising run in La Liga spans 8 matches this season (6 wins, 2 defeats).
Likely lineup Atletico Madrid (4-5-1)*
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Marc Pubill, Clement Lenglet, David Ganczko – Conor Gallagher, Pablo Barrios, Thiago Almada, Nicolas Gonzalez, Giuliano Simeone – Julian Alvarez.
Defender Jose Maria Gimenez and midfielders Marcos Llorente, Joao Cardozo and Alex Baena are sidelined through injury. The participation of defender Clement Lenglet is doubtful.
Valencia
The team remain in the lower part of the table, but recent results show some progress. Last round Valencia rescued a late draw against Sevilla (1-1), extending Carlos Corberan’s side’s unbeaten La Liga run to four matches (1 win, 3 draws); earlier in the season the club had never gone more than two league games without defeat. However, Valencia have won just once in their last 10 league fixtures. Additionally, they are still without an away win in La Liga this season, having accumulated just three points on the road — only Osasuna (2) have fared worse.
- Valencia have conceded in 20 of their last 21 La Liga matches.
- No more than two goals were scored in 6 of the team’s last 7 games in the competition.
- Valencia have conceded 23 goals this season — only three clubs have a worse defensive record.
Likely lineup Valencia (4-2-3-1)*
Julen Agirrezabal – Thierry Correia, Cesar Tarrega, Jose Manuel Copete, Jose Luis Gaya – Javi Guerra, Pepelu – Luis Rioja, Andre Almeida, Arnaut Danjuma – Hugo Duro.
Key defender Cesar Tarrega is suspended. The participation of defender Muktar Diakabi is in doubt.
Referee
Cesar Soto Grado (Spain)
Matches – 7 (La Liga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 31;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.4;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 14%.
Match prediction Atletico Madrid – Valencia
After an excellent autumn, Atletico have stumbled and lost two consecutive matches, but it is important to note both defeats came away from home. At the Metropolitano the team have not lost in 12 La Liga matches, with only one draw among those games. Atletico’s home winning run in the league stands at seven matches, and in six of those they scored at least twice — we have already seen occasions this season when the side scored three and even five goals.
Valencia remain one of the weakest away sides in the division. They are without a win on the road in nine La Liga matches (4 draws, 5 defeats). Fixtures against the top teams have been particularly harsh: in the autumn Valencia were comprehensively beaten by Barcelona and Real Madrid, conceding a combined 0-10. On average in away games this season the team have conceded 2.28 goals per 90 minutes — the worst figure in the league.
My prediction – P1 and IT1 Over 1.5
* For each team the starting XI is taken from their previous match in this competition.
