The 2024 Copa Libertadores final between Atletico Mineiro (Brazil) and Botafogo (Brazil) will take place on November 30 at the Monumental Stadium in Buenos Aires. Atletico Mineiro vs. Botafogo: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 47;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 9%.
Predicted lineups for Atletico Mineiro vs. Botafogo
Atletico Mineiro (3-4-3): Everson – Lyanco Vojnovic, Rodrigo Battaglia, Junior Alonso – Gustavo Scarpa, Alan Franco Palma, Fausto Vera, Guilherme Arana – Hulk, Paulinho, Deyverson.
Botafogo (4-2-3-1): John Furtado – Vitinho, Bastos, Adryelson, Alex Telles – Danilo Barbosa, Marlon Freitas – Che Che, Jefferson Savarino, Mateus Martins – Tiquinho Soares.
Each team's starting lineup from their previous match in this tournament is listed.
Atletico Mineiro
Gabriel Milito's side confidently navigated the semi-final stage, defeating River Plate. The team knocked out the Argentinians in the first leg at home with a 3-0 scoreline and calmly played to a goalless draw in the return match. On their way to the final, the Brazilian club suffered only two defeats, securing eight wins and two draws. This is only Atletico Mineiro's second appearance in the Copa Libertadores final – they won the tournament in 2013, defeating Paraguay's Olimpia on penalties.
- At least one team failed to score in 8 of Atletico Mineiro's last 9 Copa Libertadores matches.
- No more than two goals were scored in 5 of Atletico Mineiro's last 6 matches in this tournament.
- In 8 of the Brazilian club's last 9 Copa Libertadores matches, one team kept a clean sheet in the second half.
Botafogo
The team had a poor start in this year's Copa Libertadores, suffering two consecutive defeats. However, from that point until the semi-finals, the Brazilian club did not lose in regular time, recording 4 wins and 4 draws. In the previous stage, Botafogo secured their place in the final in the first leg, thrashing Penarol 5-0 at home. In the return leg, the club allowed themselves to lose by the necessary margin – 1-3. The team has never reached the final before.
Defender Mateo Ponte will miss the match due to suspension.
- Botafogo has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 11 Copa Libertadores matches.
- The first half ended in a draw in 7 of the club's last 10 matches in this tournament.
- The team scored first in 7 of their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
Atletico Mineiro vs. Botafogo: Match Prediction
Bookmakers favor the nominal visitors in the upcoming final, and not without reason. Botafogo is in much better form, leading the Brazilian championship. Meanwhile, Atletico Mineiro is only in the middle of the table. Gabriel Milito's side has not won in ten consecutive official matches (Serie A, Copa do Brasil, and Copa Libertadores). On the other hand, Arthur Jorge's team has lost only once in their last 20 official matches.
Just 10 days ago, the opponents met in Serie A. Atletico Mineiro played at home but only managed a goalless draw, with Botafogo completely outplaying them in all aspects: shots on goal – 27:3, corners – 11:1, possession – 70:30, xG – 2.11:0.09. In the first round of the Brazilian championship, Botafogo already defeated their compatriots 3-0 at home. Additionally, in the last five head-to-head meetings in Serie A, Atletico Mineiro has won only once (1 draw and 3 losses).
My prediction: Copa Libertadores Winner – Botafogo
