The first leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores Round of 16 between Atletico Nacional (Colombia) and Sao Paulo (Brazil) will take place on August 13 at the Gran Parque Central Stadium in Montevideo. Atletico Nacional vs. Sao Paulo: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Atletico Nacional
Javier Gandolfi's side qualified for the playoffs by finishing second in Group F. The team won all three home matches but lost all three away games. Notably, the Colombians prefer uncompromising football, as evidenced by their 13 previous Copa Libertadores matches without a draw (5 wins and 8 losses). The last time Atletico reached the tournament's playoffs was in 2023, when they advanced to the quarter-finals.
In the offseason, several free agents joined the club, and a number of players were brought in on loan. Among them are midfielder Mateus Uribe and goalkeeper David Ospina. The club sold forward Oscar Perea and defender Edier Ocampo.
- At least one team failed to score in regulation time in 8 of Atletico Nacional's last 9 Copa Libertadores matches.
- Atletico has not lost in regulation time in 19 of their last 22 home matches in this tournament (14 wins and 5 draws).
- Three or more goals were scored in regulation time in 6 of the team's last 8 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Nacional (4-2-3-1)
Arlen Castillo – Joan Castro, Simon Garcia, Andres Salazar, Cesar Haidar – Jorman Campuzano, Elkin Rivero – Marlos Moreno, Juan Baúsa, Billy Arce – Facundo Batista.
Sao Paulo
The Brazilians easily and confidently won Group D, securing 4 wins and 2 draws. Interestingly, only Palmeiras (18 points) performed better in the group stage than Sao Paulo (14 points). Additionally, the team conceded only 4 goals, ranking them among the top defensive teams in the group stage of this year's Copa Libertadores. This marks the sixth consecutive season that the Brazilians have reached the playoffs. Last year, the team advanced to the quarter-finals, where they lost on penalties to the eventual tournament winners, Botafogo.
In June, Hernan Crespo took over as head coach. The team also sold forward William Gomes and defender Diego Costa. Midfielders Santiago Longo and Marcos Antonio, as well as defender Jamal Lewis, were brought in on loan. The club also strengthened its squad for free with defender Wendell and midfielder Oscar.
- The club has not lost in regulation time in 15 consecutive Copa Libertadores matches (9 wins and 6 draws).
- No more than 2 goals were scored in regulation time in 10 of Sao Paulo's last 12 matches in this tournament.
- The team has not conceded in regulation time in their last 5 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Sao Paulo (3-5-2)
Enrique Rafael – Nahuel Ferraresi, Sabino, Alan Javier Franco – Damian Bobadilla, Mike, Rodriguinho, Marcos Antonio, Enzo Hernan Diaz – Andre Oliveira Silva, Lucas Ferreira.
Midfielders Oscar and Luis Gustavo, defenders Robert Arboleda and Wendell, as well as forwards Ryan Francisco and Jonathan Calleri, are unavailable due to injuries.
Referee
Gustavo Tejera (Uruguay)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 5;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 0%.
Atletico Nacional vs. Sao Paulo: Match Prediction
Bookmakers seem to underestimate the Serie A representative. The Brazilians have been regular participants in the Copa Libertadores in recent years and consistently reach the playoffs. Even away from home, the club remains a threat to any opponent, having not suffered a defeat in regulation time in their last 7 away matches in this tournament – 5 wins and 2 draws.
Moreover, Sao Paulo is very difficult to score against. In their last 7 away matches in the Copa Libertadores, the club has conceded just 1 goal. The Colombians also boast decent home statistics, but in their last 11 matches, they failed to win in regulation time in 6 games (3 draws and 3 losses). Therefore, with caution, I suggest the prediction – Sao Paulo with a handicap (0)
* The starting lineup for each team is based on their previous match.
