The Matchday 1 encounter in Ligue 1 between Auxerre and Lorient will take place on August 17 at the Stade Abbé-Deschamps. Auxerre vs. Lorient: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Auxerre
Auxerre concluded their first season back in Ligue 1 in 11th place. Notably, out of the last 13 editions of France's top-flight league, Auxerre participated in only two, finishing 17th in the 2022/23 season. Last season in Ligue 1, the team won 11 matches, lost 14 (9 draws), and ended with a negative goal difference of 48:51. Interestingly, the 48 goals scored were the club's best offensive record in the top French league since the 2005/06 season, when they netted 50 times. Additionally, Auxerre performed better at home last season, earning 27 points compared to 15 away. They remained unbeaten in 13 of 17 home games (7 wins, 6 draws). During the off-season, the club played six friendlies, winning, losing, and drawing two each.
During the summer transfer window, Auxerre lost their leader and last season’s top scorer, Gaëtan Perrin (10 goals, 11 assists), and key defender Jubal, both of whom moved to Krasnodar. Incoming players include forwards Josué Casimir, Ibrahim Osman, midfielder Oussama El Azzouzi, and defender Francisco Sierralta.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Auxerre's last 6 Ligue 1 matches.
- At least 3 goals were scored in 5 of the club's last 6 matches in this tournament.
- The team has not lost in 12 of their last 15 home matches in the French championship (6 wins, 6 draws).
Predicted lineup for Auxerre (4-3-3)
Donovan Léon – Clément Akpa, Fredrik Oppegård, Marvin Senaya, Francisco Sierralta – Keven Denoua, Elisha Owusu, Oussama El Azzouzi – Josué Casimir, Ibrahim Osman, Lassine Sinayoko.
Defender Sinay Diomandé is suspended, and Telli Sive is injured. Midfielder Oussama El Azzouzi is also unavailable due to health issues.
Lorient
The Bretons immediately returned to France’s top division after relegation by winning the last Ligue 2 season. Lorient won the championship, excelling in several metrics: most wins (22), most goals scored (68), and fewest goals conceded (31). However, the club was less convincing away from home, earning only 25 points compared to 46 at home. Before their relegation to Ligue 2, the team spent four consecutive seasons in the top division, with their best result being 10th place in the 2022/23 season, along with two 16th-place finishes and a 17th-place finish, which led to their relegation. Lorient played five pre-season friendlies, remaining unbeaten in four (2 wins, 2 draws), but failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them.
During the off-season, the team lost their top scorer from the previous Ligue 2 campaign, Eli Junior Krupi (22 goals), and main goalkeeper Yvon Mvogo. Other departures include forwards Yoann Cathline, Stéphane Diarra, midfielder Julien Laporte, and defender Julien Ponceau. Notable arrivals include defenders Arsène Kouassi, Abdoulaye Faye, and goalkeeper Bingourou Kamara.
- At least 3 goals were scored in 9 of Lorient's last 10 Ligue 2 matches.
- The team scored in 7 of their last 8 away matches in the second-tier French championship.
- Lorient has not lost in 6 of their last 8 away matches in this tournament (5 wins, 1 draw).
Predicted lineup for Lorient (4-3-3)
Bingourou Kamara – Arsène Kouassi, Igor Silva, Gédéon Kalulu, Montassar Talbi – Arthur Avom, Laurent Abergel, Yoël Mvuka – Mohamed Bamba, Pablo Pagis, Sambou Soumano.
Midfielder Noah Kadewere is unavailable due to injury, and defender Gédéon Kalulu is in the process of transferring to another club.
Referee
Abdelatif Kheradji (France)
Matches – 17 (Ligue 1, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 62;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 35%.
Auxerre vs. Lorient: Match Prediction
Bookmakers slightly favor the hosts for the upcoming match, and this seems reasonable. Auxerre was highly resilient at home last season, remaining unbeaten in 13 of 17 matches. Lorient, on the other hand, performed noticeably worse in away matches during the previous Ligue 2 season, facing opponents of a lower caliber compared to Auxerre. The Bretons failed to win 10 of their 17 away matches last season, suffering 6 of their 7 total defeats on the road.
Additionally, I do not expect a high-scoring encounter, as both clubs lost key attacking players during the current transfer window, and new arrivals require time to adapt and develop chemistry. Statistics also support this, with no more than 3 goals scored in 5 of Auxerre's last 6 home matches in Ligue 1 and in 9 of Lorient's last 11 away matches in Ligue 2.
Therefore, I believe the optimal betting option is – 1X + Total under 3.5 goals
