The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Barcelona (Spain) and Benfica (Portugal) will take place on March 11 at the Olympic Stadium of Lluís Companys. The first match ended 1-0 in favor of Barcelona. Barcelona vs. Benfica: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Barcelona
The Spaniards secured a hard-fought victory in the first meeting, defeating their opponent 1-0 on the road. Despite playing with ten men from the middle of the first half, the Catalans extended their unbeaten run in the Champions League to eight matches, with seven wins and one draw. To progress further in the tournament, Hans Flick's side only needs to avoid defeat at home. If the team reaches the quarter-finals, they will replicate last season's achievement.
- The club has scored two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 matches in this European competition.
- Both teams have scored in 12 of Barcelona's last 15 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 11 of the Catalans' last 12 games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-3-3)
Wojciech Szczesny – Jules Kounde, Eric Garcia, Inigo Martinez, Ronald Araujo – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri, Dani Olmo – Lamine Yamal, Raphinha Dias, Robert Lewandowski.
Defender Andreas Christensen and midfielder Marc Bernal are sidelined due to injuries. Defender Pau Cubarsi will miss the match due to suspension. There is a possibility that goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen will be ready for this match.
Benfica
The Portuguese suffered their fourth defeat in the current Champions League campaign. Interestingly, the Lisbon club has been unable to win at home in this tournament for five matches (2 draws and 3 losses). Now, to overcome the Spanish side, Benfica needs to win away by at least two goals. If the match ends with a one-goal victory for the Portuguese, extra time will be played. Notably, the club reached the quarter-finals in their last two Champions League campaigns.
- The Lisbon side opened the scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches in this tournament.
- The team has won 5 of their last 6 away matches in this European competition.
- The club has scored in 6 of their last 7 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Tomas Araujo, Samuel Dall, Nicolas Otamendi – Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Orkun Kokcu – Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Akturkoglu.
Midfielders Angel Di Maria and Manu Silva, defender Alexander Bah, and forward Tiago Gouveia will miss the match due to injuries. Defender Alvaro Carreras is out due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Referee
Francois Letexier (France)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.7;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 44%.
Match Prediction: Barcelona vs. Benfica
The Catalans showed resilience in the first match and kept a clean sheet, even while being a man down. The favorite in this tie is clear, but I don't expect the Spaniards to secure a confident victory at home. Hans Flick's team has no reason to take risks, as they already have a one-goal advantage. Moreover, Benfica is not a home-bound team and performs well on the road, so they could spring a surprise in Catalonia.
The Portuguese have suffered only one defeat in their last six away matches in the Champions League, winning five, with the loss coming against a strong opponent, Bayern Munich (0-1). During this period, Benfica defeated several serious opponents, including Juventus and Monaco. It is worth noting that the last two meetings between these teams at Barcelona's venue in the Champions League ended in a goalless draw. Therefore, with insurance, I suggest betting on Benfica not losing by two goals or more.
My prediction: Benfica with a handicap (+1.5)
