The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Germany) and Arsenal (England) will take place on 11 March at the BayArena in Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen proved too strong for Olympiacos in the play-offs. After winning 2:0 away from home, the hosts, coached by Kasper Hjulmand, drew 0:0 in the return leg. It is worth noting that the Germans have lost only one of their last seven Champions League matches (four wins, two draws), keeping a clean sheet in five of those games. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have reached the round of 16 for a second consecutive season, but in the last six instances the team have failed to progress beyond this stage. However, in their previous five knockout ties against English clubs in European competition, the Germans have come out on top four times.
- At least one side failed to score in six of Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s last seven Champions League matches.
- On home soil, the club avoided defeat in five of their previous six matches in this tournament (three draws, two defeats).
- In seven of their last 10 home Champions League games, the team conceded no more than one goal.
Potential Bayer 04 Leverkusen Lineup (3-4-3)
Janis Blaswich – Robert Andrich, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba – Alejandro Grimaldo, Ibrahim Maza, Aleix Garcia, Exequiel Palacios – Christian Kofane, Martin Terrier, Ernest Poku.
Defenders Lucas Vazquez, Arthur, Loic Bade, as well as midfielder Eliesse Ben-Seghir are injured.
Arsenal
Arsenal finished the league phase in first place, with Arsenal becoming the first team to complete it without dropping a single point. Mikel Arteta’s men also posted the best attacking return (23 goals) and impressed defensively, recording five clean sheets. The English side have reached the Champions League round of 16 in 18 consecutive seasons in which they have taken part. However, they have progressed further only seven times across that spell.
- In their last six Champions League matches, the club scored at least three goals.
- Away from home, the visitors won eight of their previous nine Champions League matches (one defeat).
- Arsenal opened the scoring in their last eight games in this tournament.
Potential Arsenal Lineup (3-4-3)
Kepa Arrizabalaga – Jurrien Timber, Christian Mosquera, Riccardo Calafiori – Martin Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly – Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka.
Midfielders Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino are sidelined through injury.
Referee
Halil Umut Meler (Turkey)
Matches – 6 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 33%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Arsenal: Match Prediction
In the return leg against the Greeks, Bayer 04 Leverkusen opted for a pragmatic approach, focusing on protecting the advantage they had earned. The home team executed the plan perfectly, registering their fifth clean sheet of the current tournament. In this upcoming match, Kasper Hjulmand’s side need to be proactive going forward, as they would ideally like to travel to London with at least some sort of cushion. But how do you break down an opponent that also have five clean sheets and have conceded just once away from home in the 2025/26 Champions League?
Even so, Bayer 04 Leverkusen do not generally look particularly formidable at home. The hosts have won only one of their last six home Champions League matches (three draws, two defeats). What is more, across their previous 12 round-of-16 games in the Champions League, the club have won only once. Arsenal, meanwhile, have been excellent on the road in this competition, winning eight of their last nine matches, with their only defeat coming against last season’s champions.
Prediction: Arsenal, double chance + Under 3.5 goals
