The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen will take place on March 5 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Bayern vs. Bayer: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Bayern Munich
In the previous round, Bayern overcame Celtic. After a 2-1 away victory over the Scots, Vincent Kompany's side drew 1-1 at home. This draw was their first in the last 11 Champions League matches (6 wins, 4 losses). Notably, Bayern kept a clean sheet in only two games during this stretch. Additionally, the club has reached the quarter-finals in the last five Champions League campaigns.
- The team has not scored more than two goals in 7 of their last 9 Champions League matches.
- At home, the club has won 6 of their last 8 Champions League matches (2 draws).
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in this tournament, Bayern has conceded no more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Bayern Munich (4-5-1)
Manuel Neuer – Raphael Guerreiro, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Konrad Laimer – Kingsley Coman, Michael Olise, Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich – Harry Kane.
Midfielder Alexander Pavlovich will miss the match due to illness.
Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen skipped the knockout play-offs. In the main round, Xabi Alonso's side finished sixth, avoiding defeat in 6 of 8 matches (5 wins, 1 draw), with both losses occurring away. Interestingly, Bayer managed to keep clean sheets in all their victories. However, five clubs eventually conceded fewer goals than Leverkusen. The Round of 16 has been a stumbling block for the team, as Bayer has been eliminated at this stage in their last five attempts.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of Bayer's last 9 Champions League matches.
- On the road, the Germans have not won in 6 of their last 7 Champions League matches (2 draws, 4 losses).
- Leverkusen has scored in 4 of their last 5 away games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Bayer Leverkusen (4-3-3)
Matej Kovar – Alejandro Grimaldo, Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, Nordi Mukiele – Exequiel Palacios, Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka – Amine Adli, Florian Wirtz, Patrik Schick.
Midfielder Robert Andrich is ill.
Referee
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 41;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 36%.
Bayern vs. Bayer: Match Prediction
Less than a month has passed since the last meeting between these opponents. In the 22nd round of the Bundesliga, Bayern traveled to Leverkusen but seemingly forgot to show up. Their first shot came as late as the 74th minute, and they failed to hit the target for the first time in the league since 2008. Leverkusen had numerous chances, hit the crossbar twice, and registered 2.56 xG compared to Bayern's 0.07. This was the sixth consecutive match where Xabi Alonso's side avoided defeat against Bayern (3 wins, 3 draws). Alonso became the first coach to achieve such a record. However, bookmakers still favor Bayern.
Bayern has won six matches in this Champions League campaign, three of which were by more than one goal. But the level of their opponents in these matches cannot be compared to that of Leverkusen. Bayer's two defeats in the main round came at Liverpool, where they struggled, and against Atletico, where they conceded a decisive goal in the 90th minute.
Bayern will undoubtedly regroup and aim to make amends for their recent lackluster performance. However, it remains uncertain if that will be enough against a challenging opponent. Notably, Leverkusen is being offered a positive handicap. My prediction: Bayer with a handicap (+1)
