The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Benfica (Portugal) and Barcelona (Spain) will take place on March 5 at the Estádio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica vs. Barcelona: prediction and statistics.
Benfica
The Lisbon team overcame Monaco in the playoffs, defeating the French side thanks to an away victory in the first leg (1-0 and 3-3). Notably, in their last six Champions League matches, they have suffered only one defeat, securing three wins and two draws. Over the past four seasons, the Portuguese side has reached the Round of 16 in this tournament for the third time. In the previous two attempts, the club advanced past this stage.
- The club has not lost in 9 of their last 12 Champions League games (6 wins and 3 draws).
- Benfica has opened the scoring in their last four matches in this European competition.
- At least four goals have been scored in 5 of Benfica's last 6 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Benfica (4-3-3)
Anatoliy Trubin – Antonio Silva, Alvaro Carreras, Samuel Dall, Nicolas Otamendi – Leandro Barreiro, Zeki Amdouni, Orkun Kokcu – Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis, Kerem Akturkoglu.
Midfielders Renato Sanches and Manu Silva, defender Alexander Bah, and forward Tiago Gouveia will miss the match due to injuries.
Barcelona
In the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons, the Spaniards failed to advance from their group in the Champions League playoffs. However, in the last edition, the Catalans reached the quarter-finals, where they were defeated by PSG (3-2 and 1-4). Once again, the team has reached the Round of 16, bypassing the playoffs, as Hans Flick's side secured second place in the group stage with 6 wins in 8 games (1 draw and 1 loss). It's also worth noting that Barcelona's matches were the most prolific in the main stage of this European competition, averaging 5.1 goals, and the team was the best in attack with 28 goals.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Barcelona's last 14 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals were scored in Barcelona's last 11 matches in this tournament.
- In all seven previous group stage games, the club scored at least two goals.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (4-3-3)
Wojciech Szczesny – Jules Kounde, Eric Garcia, Pau Cubarsi, Alex Balde – Marc Casado, Pedri, Fermin Lopez – Lamine Yamal, Raphinha Dias, Robert Lewandowski.
Due to injuries, goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen, defender Andreas Christensen, and midfielder Marc Bernal are out.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 49;
Average yellow cards per match – 6.1;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 25%.
Benfica vs. Barcelona: Match Prediction
The encounters between these opponents in the current Champions League season have been thrillingly high-scoring. Notably, their head-to-head clash in the 7th round of the group stage in Lisbon ended with a hockey-like scoreline of 5-4 in favor of the Spanish team. Also, Benfica's home games in this tournament are worth noting – in their last six matches, at least four goals were scored five times.
As mentioned earlier, Barcelona's matches in the group stage were the most entertaining and high-scoring. In eight games during the main stage, six times at least four goals were scored, and twice three goals were scored. Additionally, in all five of Barcelona's previous away games in this tournament, at least three goals were scored, with both teams finding the net each time.
I anticipate that there will be three or more goals in the first match. Both teams score more than two goals on average per match in their national championships. My prediction – Total over 3
