The Round 8 match of the group stage of the Champions League 2025/26 between Benfica (Portugal) and Real Madrid (Spain) will take place on 28 January at Estádio da Luz. Benfica vs Real Madrid: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Benfica
After a weak start in the group stage of the Champions League the team picked up form and won 2 matches in a row, but they failed to extend the run. In the last round Benfica lost 0:2 away to Juventus. The defeat in Turin was the club’s fifth in seven recent European matches. As a result, having accumulated only 6 points overall, the club sits low in the table. The Lisbon side still has chances to reach the playoffs, but to do so Benfica must win the decisive game against Real — and even with a victory they will need to monitor rivals’ results. It is worth noting that the team has won only 3 of the previous 25 matches against Spanish clubs in European competition (8 draws, 14 defeats).
- At least one team failed to score in 6 of the Portuguese side’s previous Champions League matches.
- The club’s uncompromising run in this competition lasts 8 matches (3 wins, 5 defeats).
- Benfica scored in 6 of their last 8 home Champions League matches.
Potential Benfica Lineup (4-5-1)
Anatoliy Trubin – Amar Dedic, Tomás Araújo, Nicolás Otamendi, Samuel Daal – Gianluca Prestiani, Georgiy Sudakov, Leandro Barreiro, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Skjellerup – Evangelos Pavlidis.
Defender Alexander Bah, midfielder Richard Ríos, and forward Dodi Lukebakio are unavailable due to injuries.
Real Madrid
The Spanish side achieved maximum results in the first 3 rounds of the Champions League, after which the team began to alternate wins and defeats. After the December defeat to Manchester City by 1:2, a few days ago Real convincingly dismantled Monaco 6:1. Thus the Madrid side has twice in the current European season beaten an opponent by a five-goal margin, earlier they defeated Kairat 5:0. Before the final group-stage round the Spanish club rose to 3rd in the table and secured a place in the playoffs. A win over Benfica will deliver a direct spot in the round of 16. Since Real has one of the best goal difference figures (+11), there is a possibility that a draw will be enough to keep their top-8 position.
- The Madrid side is unbeaten in 10 European matches against Portuguese teams (8 wins, 2 draws).
- Real’s uncompromising run in the Champions League lasts 23 matches (15 wins, 8 defeats).
- The Spanish side has conceded in 4 consecutive Champions League matches.
Potential Real Madrid Lineup (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Raúl Asensio, Din Heisen, Federico Valverde, Alvaro Carreras – Arda Güler, Aurelien Tchouameni, Jude Bellingham – Vinícius Júnior, Franco Mastantuono, Kylian Mbappé.
First-choice defender Alvaro Carreras has served a suspension. Defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy and Éder Militão will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2025/26);
Shown yellow/red cards (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow/red cards per match – 3.2;
Shown red cards – 2;
Fouls per match on average – 24;
Penalties – 22%.
Benfica vs Real Madrid: Match Prediction
Benfica is close to elimination from the Champions League. At one point the Portuguese side rallied and ended a run of 4 defeats in this competition, but after 2 consecutive wins the team lost an important match against Juventus (0:2). The club has lost 5 of the last 7 group-stage encounters, which places the Lisbon side in the lower part of the table. It is also worth noting the not very high entertainment value, which is quite typical for José Mourinho’s team. In 5 of Benfica’s last 6 Champions League games there were at most 2 goals scored.
Real has solid chances of a direct spot in the round of 16. Recently, despite pressure and a recent coaching change, the club climbed into the top three of the group stage thanks to a fifth win in seven rounds. Although 7 goals were scored in the last match against Monaco, such high scoring is not a frequent occurrence. In 8 of Real’s last 11 Champions League matches there were no more than 3 goals.
From all the presented details the forecast is: Real victory + total under 3.5.
Prediction: Real Madrid + Under 3.5 goals
