The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Lille (France) will take place on March 4 at Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Borussia Dortmund
The German club successfully navigated the previous round, almost securing their place in the Round of 16 after a 3-0 away victory over Sporting. The return leg ended in a goalless draw, halting Borussia's nine-match goal-scoring streak in the Champions League. Although they had a chance to score, Serou Guirassy missed a penalty. Notably, the forward had scored in five consecutive Champions League matches before this. Dortmund has reached the Round of 16 in this tournament for the third consecutive season.
- At least three goals were scored in 5 of the club's last 6 Champions League matches.
- Borussia has avoided defeat in 5 of their last 7 Champions League games (4 wins, 1 draw).
- In 5 of their last 6 home matches in this tournament, the team has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Borussia Dortmund (4-5-1)
Gregor Kobel – Daniel Svensson, Nico Schlotterbeck, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini – Karim Adeyemi, Marcel Sabitzer, Julian Brandt, Pascal Gross, Emre Can – Serou Guirassy.
Midfielder Felix Nmecha is injured.
Lille
Seventh place in the group stage standings allowed Bruno Génésio's team to avoid the extra burden of playoff matches. The French side remained unbeaten in 6 of their 8 group stage matches (5 wins, 1 draw) and scored 17 goals, ranking third among the top-8 clubs. However, Lille's defense lacked reliability, conceding goals in 6 consecutive Champions League games. The club has reached the Round of 16 in the Champions League for the third time in its history, but has never progressed beyond this stage.
- Both teams scored in Lille's last 6 matches in this European competition.
- Away, the French team has not won in 5 of their last 7 Champions League matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
- In 5 of their last 6 away games in this tournament, the club has scored against their opponents.
Predicted lineup for Lille (4-5-1)
Lucas Chevalier – Gabriel Gudmundsson, Alessandro, Bafode Diakite, Thomas Meunier – Ngalayel Mukau, Ayoub Bouaddi, Hakon Haraldsson, Remy Cabella, Osame Sahraoui – Jonathan David.
Forward Edon Zhegrova and defenders Samuel Umtiti and Tiago Santos will miss the match due to injury.
Referee
Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez (Spain)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 14%.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: Match Prediction
Niko Kovac's team did not concede a single goal against Sporting, although prior to that, the Germans had failed to keep a clean sheet in three consecutive Champions League matches. It is worth noting that Sporting had significant squad issues, which affected their attacking play. Borussia played 4 home matches in the group stage of this tournament and managed to keep only one opponent scoreless, which was Sturm, a team that only outscored two others in the group stage.
Lille failed to score against Sporting in the first round, but then embarked on a seven-match goal-scoring streak in the Champions League. Even defensive stalwarts like Liverpool, Juventus, and Atletico suffered at the hands of the French during this period. Lille has scored in 10 of their last 12 away Champions League matches. Therefore, I believe the bookmakers are underestimating the visitors' chances of scoring.
My prediction: Lille Individual Total Over 0.5
