The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League Round of 16 between Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Lille (France) will take place on March 4 at Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Borussia Dortmund
The German club successfully advanced from the previous round, virtually securing their spot in the Round of 16 after a decisive 3-0 away victory over Sporting. The return leg ended in a goalless draw, which snapped Borussia's nine-match scoring streak in the Champions League. Although they had a chance to score, Serhou Guirassy missed a penalty. Notably, the forward had scored in five consecutive Champions League matches before this. Additionally, Dortmund has reached the Round of 16 for the third consecutive season.
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of the club's last 6 Champions League matches.
- Borussia has avoided defeat in 5 of their last 7 Champions League games (4 wins, 1 draw).
- In 5 of their last 6 home matches in this tournament, the team has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Borussia Dortmund (4-5-1)
Gregor Kobel – Daniel Svensson, Nico Schlotterbeck, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini – Karim Adeyemi, Marcel Sabitzer, Julian Brandt, Pascal Gross, Emre Can – Serhou Guirassy.
Midfielder Felix Nmecha is injured.
Lille
Finishing seventh in the overall stage standings allowed Bruno Génésio's side to avoid the extra burden of playoff matches. The French team remained unbeaten in 6 of 8 matches in the main round (5 wins, 1 draw), scoring 17 goals, the third-best among the top-8 clubs. However, Lille's defense has been less reliable, having conceded in six consecutive Champions League games. Notably, the club has reached the Round of 16 in the Champions League for the third time in its history, but they have never progressed further.
- Both teams have scored in Lille's last 6 matches in this European competition.
- The French side has not won in 5 of their last 7 away Champions League matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
- In 5 of their last 6 away games in this tournament, the club has scored against their opponents.
Predicted lineup for Lille (4-5-1)
Lucas Chevalier – Gabriel Gudmundsson, Alessandro, Bafodé Diakité, Thomas Meunier – Ngalayel Mukau, Ayoub Bouaddi, Hákon Haraldsson, Mitchel Bakker, Nabil Bentaleb – Jonathan David.
Forwards Edon Zhegrova, Osame Sahraoui, and defenders Samuel Umtiti and Tiago Santos will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
José María Sánchez Martínez (Spain)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 14%.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: Match Prediction
Niko Kovac's side managed to keep a clean sheet against Sporting, although prior to this, the Germans had failed to do so in three consecutive Champions League matches. It's worth noting that the Portuguese side had significant squad issues, which impacted their attacking play. In the main round of this tournament, Borussia played 4 home matches, managing to "dry up" only one opponent, which was Sturm, a team that scored fewer goals than only two other teams in the overall stage.
Lille failed to score against Sporting in the first round, but then went on a 7-match scoring streak in the Champions League. Even defensive giants like Liverpool, Juventus, and Atletico suffered from the French side during this period. Away in the Champions League, the club has scored in 10 of their last 12 matches. Therefore, I believe the bookmakers are underestimating the visitors' chances for a goal.
My prediction: Lille Individual Total Over 0.5
