The Matchday 4 clash of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Sturm (Austria) will take place on November 5th at the Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund vs Sturm: prediction and betting tips, odds, statistics.
Referee: Erik Lambrechts (Belgium)
Matches – 7 (International encounters, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow/red cards shown – 28;
Average yellow/red cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 14%.
Probable line-ups for Borussia Dortmund vs Sturm
Borussia Dortmund (4-5-1): Alexander Meyer – Pascal Gross, Nico Schlotterbeck, Emre Can, Ramy Bensebaini – Felix Nmecha, Marcel Sabitzer, Maximilian Bayer, Julian Brandt, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens – Serou Girassi.
Sturm (4-3-1-2): Kjell Scherpen – Dimitri Lavalee, Yusuf Gazibegovic, Emanuel Aiwu, Niklas Geyrhofer – Otar Kiteishvili, Lovro Zvonarek, Tomi Horvat – William Boving – Sidi Yatta, Mika Biereth.
Borussia Dortmund
In the previous round, Nuri Sahin's charges suffered a 2-5 away defeat to Real Madrid, despite holding a two-goal lead at halftime. Consequently, Borussia Dortmund experienced their first significant Champions League loss since 2021. In the standings, Dortmund dropped to the 11th position, yet they lead the group stage in total goals scored (12).
Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, defenders Waldemar Anton, Julian Ryerson, Niklas Sule, Jan Couto, midfielder Giovanni Reyna, and forwards Julien Duranville and Karim Adeyemi will miss the match due to injuries.
- The team hasn't lost in regular time in their last 12 home games in the UCL (8 wins, 4 draws).
- The club conceded no more than one goal in 90 minutes in 11 of the previous 12 home encounters in this European competition.
- A maximum of two goals were scored in regular time in 8 of the last 10 home matches of the Germans in the Champions League.
Sturm
Christian Ilzer's squad lost 0-2 at home to Portugal's Sporting in the last round. It marked Sturm's fifth consecutive defeat in regular time in the Champions League, with the club failing to score in the last two matches. As a result, the Austrians sit at the very bottom of the table with zero points, ahead of four clubs only by goal difference.
Defender Gregory Wuthrich and midfielder Jon Gorenc Stankovic will miss the match due to injuries.
- The club hasn't won in regular time in their last nine away games in the Champions League (2 draws, 7 losses).
- The team scored more than once in 90 minutes in none of their last six away matches in the UCL.
- The Austrians conceded exactly one or two goals in regular time in 5 of their last 6 away matches in this European competition.
Borussia Dortmund vs Sturm: Match Prediction
Nuri Sahin's team has been very productive this season: in 12 Bundesliga and UCL matches, Dortmund has failed to score only once. In the Champions League alone, Borussia has already netted 12 goals in just three rounds, with seven of those coming in their single home match against Celtic. However, the Germans have also conceded six goals in the group stage of the UCL, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven Bundesliga matches.
Sturm will face a tough challenge considering their poor away record: the last away win in the Champions League dates back to 2001, and in the last four matches, the club has lost in regular time. Moreover, the team has been conceding a lot in this European competition: in 4 of the last 5 matches, Sturm's net has been hit at least twice within 90 minutes. However, the team has scored in 5 of their last 7 away encounters in the UCL.
Taking all circumstances into account, I expect a high-scoring game, so my prediction is: "Total Over 3.5" with the odds of
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