The first leg of the 2024/25 Champions League playoff between Brest (France) and PSG (France) will take place on February 11 at the Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp. Brest vs. PSG: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Brest
The club's debut season in the Champions League can already be deemed successful. The team managed to qualify for the tournament's playoffs, securing four wins, one draw, and three losses in the group stage. However, it's worth noting that the French side only managed to defeat one opponent who also advanced to the playoffs (PSV). Additionally, Eric Roy's men lost their last two group stage matches, falling to Shakhtar (0-2) and then to Real Madrid (0-3).
Midfielder Jonas Martin and defender Bradley Locko are sidelined due to injuries.
- At least one team failed to score in Brest's last four matches in this tournament.
- No more than three goals have been scored in Brest's last six Champions League matches.
- The club has not won the second half in their last six European matches (4 draws and 2 losses).
Predicted lineup for Brest (4-3-3)
Marco Bizot – Soumaila Coulibaly, Massadio Haidara, Brendan Chardonnet, Kenny Lala – Hugo Magnetti, Pierre Lees-Melou, Mahdi Camara – Abdallah Sima, Kamory Doumbia, Ludovic Ajorque.
PSG
The Parisians secured their spot in the top 24 only at the end of the group stage. Luis Enrique's side convincingly defeated Salzburg (3-0) and Stuttgart (4-1) away, and achieved a comeback victory against Manchester City (4-2) at home. It's noteworthy that PSG has consistently reached the Champions League playoffs for 13 consecutive seasons. Last season, they reached the semifinals, where they lost to Borussia Dortmund (0-1, 0-1).
Midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery and forward Ibrahima Mbaye will miss the match due to injuries.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 8 of PSG's last 10 European matches.
- The number "1" has appeared in the final score in 8 of PSG's last 11 Champions League matches.
- The club has conceded in 22 of their last 23 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Nuno Mendes, William Pacho, Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos – Fabian Ruiz, Vitinha, Lee Kang-In – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembélé.
Referee
Irfan Peljto (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 43;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 60%.
Match Prediction: Brest vs. PSG
PSG benefited from the draw, as they often face challenges against strong opponents in the playoffs, especially away from home. In the playoff matches, they will face their compatriots, against whom PSG has an excellent head-to-head record. Since the 2010/11 season, when Brest began sporadically appearing in Ligue 1, the teams have met 20 times in the league and the Coupe de France, with PSG remaining unbeaten (18 wins and 2 draws).
Notably, Brest has lost all nine previous official home encounters against PSG. In six of those matches, PSG won by a margin of two or more goals. Furthermore, the capital club has scored at least two goals in 15 of their last 16 encounters in Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France.
I am confident that PSG will prevail in the first leg, with at least two goals scored in the match, and the visitors themselves likely to score two or more goals. The team is in good form, having not suffered a single defeat in the league, where they are confidently leading, while Brest is mid-table and may miss out on European competition next season.
My prediction – PSG to win and Total over 1.5 goals
