The Matchday 3 encounter of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Chelsea (England) and Ajax (Netherlands) is set for October 22 at Stamford Bridge in London. Chelsea vs. Ajax: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Chelsea
The first round of the Champions League was disappointing for the club. In mid-September, the Londoners lost to Bayern, marking their third consecutive defeat in this European competition. However, two weeks later, Chelsea broke this streak with a hard-fought victory over Benfica (1-0). For the fourth consecutive Champions League match, the English side failed to score more than one goal, but one goal was enough for Enzo Maresca's men to rise to 18th in the current tournament standings.
- Chelsea has not lost in 5 of their last 6 home matches in the Champions League (4 wins, 1 draw).
- At least one team failed to score in 11 of the last 14 home games for the Londoners in this tournament.
- The club's uncompromising home series in the Champions League stands at 5 matches (4 wins, 1 loss).
Predicted lineup for Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
Robert Sanchez – Malo Gusto, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella – Reece James, Moises Caicedo – Pedro Neto, Facundo Buonanotte, Alejandro Garnacho – Tyrique George.
Forward Joao Pedro is suspended. Due to injuries, defenders Benoit Badiashile, Wesley Fofana, Levi Colwill, midfielder Cole Palmer, and forward Liam Delap are unavailable. Midfielder Enzo Fernandez is doubtful for the match.
Ajax
John Heitinga's squad is among the few teams that have yet to earn a point in this season's Champions League. Ajax lost to Inter and Marseille without scoring. Alongside Ajax, only Olympiacos has failed to score in this European competition so far. Additionally, the club has conceded six goals in total, with only Kairat (9) faring worse. The penultimate position in the overall standings seems justified. Overall, Ajax has suffered six defeats in their last seven Champions League matches.
- At least two goals have been scored in Ajax's last eight Champions League matches.
- The team's uncompromising series in this tournament spans nine games (2 wins, 7 losses).
- Both teams scored in 7 of Ajax's last 8 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Ajax (4-3-3)
Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Goei, Ko Itakura, Jurri Bass, Lucas Rosa – Davy Klaassen, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Oliver Edwardsen, Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst.
Defender Owen Wijndal, midfielder Branco van den Boomen, and forward Kasper Dolberg are unavailable due to injuries. The participation of forwards Steven Berghuis and Don-Angelo Konadu is doubtful.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 20 (International matches, 2024/25 – 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 98;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 9;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 35%.
Chelsea vs. Ajax: Match Prediction
Many expect a convincing victory from Chelsea, but it’s not certain that Enzo Maresca’s men will have it easy. The English side has won only 2 of their last 6 Champions League matches, and in both successful games, they defeated their opponents by a margin of 1 or 2 goals. The club has not achieved a large-margin victory in the Champions League for 9 consecutive games, during which they scored a maximum of 2 goals in each match. Even when considering strictly home matches, Chelsea has defeated their opponent by a margin of 3 goals only once in their last 8 games in this European competition.
Ajax fell apart in their last Champions League game against Marseille, but such collapses are not frequent. In the previous 52 matches in this tournament, the club has suffered only 3 heavy defeats, and even a 2-goal margin loss is rare for Ajax. On foreign grounds, until the recent match with Marseille, Ajax consistently avoided a rout for 25 Champions League matches.
Based on the given facts, the prediction is – Ajax with a handicap (+2.5)
