The semi-final match of the French Cup between Dunkirk and PSG will take place on April 1 at the Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d'Ascq. Dunkirk vs. PSG: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Dunkirk
The club has reached the semi-finals of the French Cup for the first time in its history, with their previous best being the quarter-finals, last achieved in the 1970/71 season. In the previous round, Dunkirk knocked out Brest with a 3-2 victory. In this French Cup campaign, the club has played six matches, starting from the 1/128 finals, winning four of them in regular time. In the opening match against Stade Bethunois (0-0, 7-6 on penalties) and the 1/8 finals against Lille (1-1, 5-4 on penalties), Dunkirk secured victories in penalty shootouts. It's worth noting that all their matches in this year's French Cup have been played away from home.
- The club has won with a handicap (+1.5) in 17 previous French Cup matches.
- No more than 4 goals have been scored in 16 of Dunkirk's last 18 matches in this tournament.
- The team has scored in the second half in 6 of their last 8 French Cup matches.
Predicted lineup for Dunkirk (4-5-1)
Yuen Jauen – Alex Jorjen, Geoffrey Condo, Vincent Sasso, Benjalou Youssouf – Hugo Raguber, Muhanad Al-Saad, Enzo Bardelli, Malik Diop, Maxence Rivera – Kai Teyana.
PSG
In the quarter-finals, the Parisians thrashed Brioche with a 7-0 scoreline. The reigning champions have confidently won their last three French Cup matches in regular time, although they started with a tough victory over Lens in the 1/32 finals, winning 4-3 on penalties (1-1 in regular time). Notably, since the 2014/15 season, the capital club has reached the French Cup semi-finals for the ninth time, successfully advancing in all eight previous instances and winning seven titles in this period. Interestingly, PSG has also played all their matches in this year's French Cup away from home.
- The team has won by at least a 1.5-goal margin in 7 of their last 10 French Cup matches.
- No fewer than 3 goals have been scored in 10 of PSG's last 13 matches in this tournament.
- The Parisians have opened the scoring in 8 of their last 10 French Cup matches.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Lucas Hernandez, William Pacho, Lucas Beraldo, Achraf Hakimi – Senny Mayulu, Fabian Ruiz, Joao Neves – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Goncalo Ramos, Desire Doue.
Goalkeeper Arnau Tenas and midfielder Lee Kang-in are injured.
Referee
Jerome Brisard (France)
Matches – 5 (French Cup, 2022/23 – 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 14;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 20%.
Match Prediction: Dunkirk vs. PSG
The nominal hosts have achieved a historic milestone by reaching the semi-finals of the French Cup. They have shown character, overcoming a two-goal deficit against Ligue 1 side Brest in the quarter-finals. Overall, the strength of the Ligue 2 team is evident, having eliminated three top-division representatives, including Lille and Auxerre, on their way to the semi-finals.
As mentioned earlier, Dunkirk has played all their matches in this tournament away from home. This nominally home fixture will be played at Lille's stadium, as they cannot meet the federation's safety requirements at their home ground when hosting PSG. For the reigning champions, it doesn't matter where they play. Like their upcoming opponents, the Parisians have played all their matches in this year's competition away from home, easily advancing to the semi-finals. Few doubt that PSG will once again play in the tournament's decisive match. The last time the French giants lost in a French Cup semi-final was in the 1985/86 season.
The difference in class and experience in the decisive stages of the French Cup is, of course, incomparable. However, the nominal hosts can take advantage of the Parisians' underestimation. Dunkirk is unlikely to challenge their star-studded opponents, but they are capable of finding the net against PSG. The club has scored in 12 of their last 13 French Cup matches, while PSG has failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their last 9 matches in this tournament. Moreover, the capital team has consistently conceded in their league games, going five matches without a clean sheet.
Therefore, I expect a goal from the hosts, my prediction: Dunkirk Individual Total Over 0.5
