The first leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores semi-final between Flamengo (Brazil) and Racing (Argentina) will take place on October 23 at the Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro. Flamengo vs. Racing: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Flamengo
The Brazilians need to overcome just one more opponent to reach the final of this tournament for the fourth time in the last seven years. In 2019 and 2022, the team managed to win the Copa Libertadores. In this season's playoffs, Filipe Luis's side first easily dispatched Internacional (2-0 and 1-0), and then narrowly defeated Estudiantes (2-1 and 0-1, on penalties 4-2). Notably, before their loss in the second leg of the quarter-finals, the club had gone unbeaten in seven consecutive Copa Libertadores matches (5 wins and 2 draws).
- A maximum of two goals were scored in 7 of Flamengo's last 8 matches in this tournament.
- At least one team failed to score in 5 of Flamengo's last 6 Copa Libertadores games.
- The club secured 21 wins in their last 23 home matches in this tournament (2 losses).
Predicted lineup for Flamengo (4-4-2)
Agustin Rossi – Guillermo Varela, Leo Ortiz, Leo Pereira, Alex Sandro – Jorginho, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Samuel Lino, Saul Niguez – Johnny Cardinoti Pedro, Gonzalo Plata.
Racing
The team did not participate in the Copa Libertadores last season, yet their return to the elite South American tournament has been highly successful. The Argentinians confidently won their group and then advanced past Peñarol (3-1 and 0-1) and Vélez Sarsfield (twice 1-0) in the knockout stages. Gustavo Costas's side has won 6 of their last 7 matches in this tournament, losing only once.
- At least one team failed to score in 6 of Racing's last 7 Copa Libertadores games.
- Racing has not lost in 5 of their last 6 away matches in this tournament (3 wins and 2 draws).
- The club won with a clean sheet in the second half in 7 of their last 8 Copa Libertadores matches.
Predicted lineup for Racing (4-3-3)
Tomas Marchiori – Aaron Quiros, Elias Gomez, Emanuel Mammana, Agustin Lagos – Tomas Galvan, Agustin Bouzat, Rodrigo Allendro – Imanol Machuca, Michael Santos, Maer Carriso.
Referee
Jesus Valenzuela (Venezuela)
Matches – 24 (International matches, 2024–2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 126;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.3;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 17%.
Match Prediction: Flamengo vs. Racing
The hosts are clear favorites, at least for the first leg. Their consistent participation in the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores speaks volumes. Additionally, the Brazilians are in excellent form, not only in the continental tournament but also in their domestic league, where they are battling with Palmeiras for the top spot. It is also worth mentioning that Flamengo rarely leaves the Maracanã without a victory in the Copa Libertadores.
I believe the Brazilians will keep a clean sheet in the first leg. In 9 of their last 12 home matches in this tournament, the club has managed to keep a clean sheet. Furthermore, in the current Serie A season, Flamengo has played 14 matches at home and conceded only 4 goals. On the other hand, while Racing has impressed in this season's continental tournament, they are 11th out of 15 teams in their national league, scoring an average of just 1 goal per match midway through the first round.
My prediction – Racing individual total under 0.5
