Germany vs Italy: betting odds March 23, 2025

The second leg of the Nations League 2024/25 quarter-final between Germany and Italy will take place on March 23 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. The score of the first match was 2-1 in favor of Germany. Germany vs. Italy: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Germany

Julian Nagelsmann's team conceded an early goal in the first leg but turned the match around after the break to secure a 2-1 victory. To advance to the semi-finals, Germany only needs to avoid defeat in the return leg. The team is currently on an eight-match unbeaten streak in this tournament (5 wins, 3 draws), having scored in all those encounters.

• At home, the national team has won 4 of their last 5 Nations League matches (1 loss).
• In 6 of their previous 7 home games in the Nations League, Germany has not conceded more than one goal.
• At least three goals have been scored in 6 of Germany's last 8 matches in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Germany (3-5-2)

Oliver Baumann – Antonio Rüdiger, David Raum, Jonathan Tah – Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, Nadiem Amiri, Pascal Gross, Leon Goretzka – Leroy Sané, Jonathan Burkardt.

Midfielder Florian Wirtz and forward Niclas Füllkrug are injured.

Italy

The defeat in the last match marked Italy's second consecutive loss in the Nations League. Notably, the team had never lost two matches in a row in this tournament before. To reach their third Nations League semi-final, Italy must win the return match in regulation time with at least a two-goal margin. The team is on a five-match winning streak away in the Nations League, but 3 of those victories were by a single-goal margin. A similar outcome would lead to extra time.

• Both teams scored in 8 of Italy's last 9 matches in the Nations League.
• In 5 of their previous 6 away games in this tournament, the team has scored at least two goals.
• Italy has not conceded more than one goal in 10 of their last 12 away matches in the Nations League.

Predicted lineup for Italy (4-3-3)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Destiny Udogie – Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Rovella, Sandro Tonali – Moise Kean, Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Politano.

Defenders Federico Dimarco, Riccardo Calafiori, Andrea Cambiaso, and forward Mateo Retegui will miss the match due to injuries.

Referee

Szymon Marciniak (Poland)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties – 38%.

Match Prediction: Germany vs. Italy

The outcome of the otherwise evenly matched first leg was decided by Italian defensive errors. Once famed for their solid defense, the Italians now allow too much at the back. Luciano Spalletti's team has managed only one clean sheet in this Nations League edition, a record shared with teams like San Marino, Andorra, and Liechtenstein. In the return match, Italy will need to open up and push forward.

Germany has scored in all 7 of their Nations League 2024/25 matches, netting at least twice in 5 of those games. At home, the team has been confident in this tournament, losing only once (5 wins, 5 draws). In their last five home matches in the Nations League, Germany has scored 18 goals, including a 5-2 victory over Italy.

My prediction: Germany will not lose and Total Over 1.5 goals