Matchday 4 of the 2024/25 Champions League group stage between Inter Milan (Italy) and Arsenal (England) will take place on November 6 at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. Inter vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Matches – 14 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 74;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.3;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 14%.
Predicted lineups for Inter vs. Arsenal
Inter (3-5-2): Yann Sommer – Benjamin Pavard, Stefan de Vrij, Alessandro Bastoni – Matteo Darmian, Nicolo Barella, Davide Frattesi, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Federico Dimarco – Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram.
Arsenal (4-3-3): David Raya – Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Jakub Kiwior, Ben White – Jorginho, Thomas Partey, Ethan Nwaneri – Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard.
Inter
The Milanese are among the top eight after three rounds. Simone Inzaghi's side has not conceded a single goal, joining four other clubs with this feat. The Italians managed a draw away against Manchester City (0-0) and secured victories over Red Star Belgrade (4-0) and Young Boys (1-0). Notably, Inter has lost only once in regular time in their last 11 Champions League matches, achieving six wins and four draws.
Midfielder Carlos Augusto will miss the game due to injury.
- At least one team failed to score in 5 of Inter's last 6 matches in this tournament.
- No more than three goals were scored in regular time in 12 of Inter's last 14 Champions League matches.
- The Italians have not conceded in the first half in their last six home matches in this European competition.
Arsenal
Like the Milanese, the Gunners have yet to concede a goal and have accumulated 7 points in the Champions League group stage. The English side also started with a draw against Atalanta away (0-0). Mikel Arteta's team then secured clean-sheet victories at home against PSG (2-0) and Shakhtar (1-0). It's worth noting that Arsenal's and Atalanta's matches are the lowest-scoring in the current Champions League group stage, averaging just one goal per game.
Due to injuries, defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori, Kieran Tierney, and midfielder Declan Rice will miss the match.
- Londoners scored a maximum of one goal in regular time in 6 of their last 8 games in this European competition.
- At least one team failed to score in 8 of Arsenal's last 10 Champions League matches.
- The club has not won in the second half in seven consecutive away matches in this tournament (2 draws and 5 losses).
Inter vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
In my opinion, the optimal strategy for advancing to the next stage of the Champions League is to maximize points against significantly weaker opponents and play for draws against equally matched teams. This is exactly how both Milanese and Londoners have performed in the first three rounds. Predicting a winner in this upcoming clash is challenging, and it's no surprise that bookmakers offer equal odds for these clubs. In matches like these, a single goal can decide the outcome.
Both teams focus primarily on defense in this tournament and do not score much. Therefore, I believe this encounter is unlikely to see more than two goals. Such scoring was evident in 10 of Inter's last 14 Champions League matches and in 7 of Arsenal's last 8 matches in this tournament. Additionally, the Gunners have not scored in their last three away matches in this European competition, while the Milanese have not conceded in their last three home games in the Champions League.
My prediction – Total under 2.5 goals
