The second leg of the 2024/25 Champions League semi-final between Inter Milan (Italy) and Barcelona (Spain) will take place on May 6 at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. The first match ended in a 3-3 draw. Inter vs. Barcelona: match prediction and statistics.
Inter
Simone Inzaghi's side managed to hold Barcelona to a draw on their home turf (3-3) in the first leg, extending their unbeaten run in the Champions League to seven matches (5 wins, 2 draws). Additionally, Inter has scored at least twice in their last six consecutive matches in this European competition. However, they have conceded five goals in the last two Champions League encounters, whereas they allowed only three goals in the previous 11 matches. To reach their second final in this tournament in the past three seasons, the team needs a win in regular time.
- The club has not lost in regular time in their last 14 home matches in the Champions League (11 wins, 3 draws).
- The team has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 10 of their last 11 home games in this European competition.
- Inter scored exactly one or two goals in regular time in 5 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter (4-5-1)
Yann Sommer – Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi – Federico Dimarco, Hakan Calhanoglu, Nicolo Barella, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Denzel Dumfries – Marko Arnautovic, Marcus Thuram.
Defender Benjamin Pavard is preparing for the match, while the participation of forward Lautaro Martinez is in doubt.
Barcelona
Hans Flick's side, after drawing in the first leg, failed to win their second consecutive Champions League match – previously suffering a defeat away to Borussia Dortmund (1-3). Moreover, Barcelona has conceded at least three goals for the third time in this tournament's current edition. However, the team has scored the most goals in the current Champions League (40). Now, to reach their first final in this European competition in ten seasons, the Catalans need a win in 90 minutes, with extra time to be played in case of a draw.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 1 draw).
- Both opponents scored in 90 minutes in 8 of Barcelona's last 9 away encounters in this European competition.
- The Catalans conceded at least two goals in regular time in 6 of their last 7 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Barcelona (3-5-2)
Wojciech Szczesny – Eric Garcia, Inigo Martinez, Pau Cubarsi, Gerard Martin – Frenkie de Jong, Pedri – Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Raphinha Dias – Robert Lewandowski.
Defenders Alex Balde and Jules Kounde, as well as midfielders Pablo Torre, Marc Bernal, and Marc Casado will not play due to injuries. Forward Robert Lewandowski has recovered from an injury and is ready for the match.
Referee
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 36;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 40%.
Inter vs. Barcelona: Match Prediction
In the first leg, Inter showed that they can not only defend well but also attack effectively. Moreover, at home in the current Champions League campaign, Inter has been quite prolific: in six matches, the club's players have scored 13 goals. The Italians have failed to score at least twice in only two encounters, one of which was against Arsenal – one of the best teams in terms of goals conceded in the current Champions League.
As good as Barcelona is in creating chances, Hans Flick's side cannot seem to resolve their defensive issues. Away from home, the Spaniards can score a lot, but they also concede regularly and in large numbers: in the current Champions League, the Catalans have played six away matches, conceding at least two goals in five of them. Overall, the team has conceded 20 goals in this tournament's current edition – by far the worst among all semi-finalists.
I believe the hosts will take advantage of their opponent's defensive problems and score at least two goals. My prediction: Inter Individual Total Over 1.5 goals
