Krylya Sovetov Samara Form and Squad
The defeat away to Sochi (1:2) was a major surprise for Krylya Sovetov Samara. Before that setback, the team had looked good in home matches against Akhmat Grozny (2:2) and CSKA Moscow (1:1), allowing only 1.81 xGA – a decent figure for a side fighting for survival against strong opponents. At the Fisht Stadium the team collapsed in the closing stages – Sergey Babkin and Thomas Galdames were sent off, after which the opposition took advantage of the extra man in a final surge. It is clear that the coaching staff led by Bulatov have worked on those mistakes – such situations are unlikely to be repeated in this campaign.
Key Numbers for Krylya Sovetov Samara:
At home the club have taken 18 of their 23 points. Among the teams in the bottom half of the table, only Dinamo Makhachkala (19) and Akhmat Grozny (23) have more.
Krylya Sovetov Samara are unbeaten at home in the Premier Liga since September – seven matches in a row.
Krylya Sovetov Samara have a positive goal difference in home Premier Liga matches (16-15).
Potential Krylya Sovetov Samara Lineup (4-5-1)
Sergey Pesjakov — Kirill Pechenin, Sergey Bozhin, Dominik Oroz, Fernando — Dani Fernandez, Jimmy Marin, Ivan Oleynikov, Ilzat Akhmetov, Nikolay Rasskazov — Amar Rahmanovic
Unavailable: Thomas Galdames, Sergey Babkin, Roman Evgenjev (all suspended), Maksim Vityugov, Chinedu Geoffrey (both injured).
Lokomotiv Moscow Form and Squad
Without the Russian Cup, from which Lokomotiv Moscow, incidentally, were knocked out by Krylya Sovetov Samara (2:3 after penalties), the team have little motivation left for the end of the season. The title race is already out of reach, and the cushion to the chasing pack allows them to ease off slightly. Even so, the team have already directly influenced the title battle by taking points off Zenit St. Petersburg (0:0). At home the hosts could even have beaten the visitors, but Nikolay Komlichenko missed a late penalty. From open play the team produced only 0.97 xG – not bad against Zenit St. Petersburg, yet they still created very few clear chances. A problem for the coaching staff will be the loss of two important attacking players, with Dmitriy Vorobyov and Aleksandr Rudenko both unavailable.
Key Numbers for Lokomotiv Moscow:
Since the start of 2026 the team have scored only two goals in three away Premier Liga matches.
Aleksey Batrakov has managed just one goal and one assist in four full league matches in April. Against Zenit St. Petersburg he collected only a booking.
Since the international break Lokomotiv Moscow have underperformed their expected goals by almost two goals (4.91 xG and three goals scored). It is a poor figure over a short sample.
Potential Lokomotiv Moscow Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Anton Mitryushkin — Lucas Fasson, Cesar Montes, Evgeniy Morozov, Aleksandr Silyanov — Artem Karpukas, Danil Prutsev — Danila Godyaev, Aleksey Batrakov, Zelimkhan Bakaev — Nikolay Komlichenko
Unavailable: Aleksandr Rudenko (suspended), Dmitriy Vorobyov (injured).
Who Will Referee the Match
Kirill Levnikov (Russia)
Matches – 15 (Premier Liga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellow cards) – 71;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.7;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 27%.
Match Prediction
Krylya Sovetov Samara have one last chance to save themselves. With a win the hosts could even climb as high as 11th place in the league. Most likely the hosts will approach the game against Lokomotiv Moscow in the same manner as the match with CSKA Moscow. As the underdog they will create few chances going forward, but they should still threaten in a few counter-attacks. For the most part the hosts will sit deep in two compact lines around their own penalty area, leaving Aleksey Batrakov very little space to improvise. The missed penalty against Zenit St. Petersburg is also likely to weigh on Lokomotiv Moscow's attack – Nikolay Komlichenko is already struggling to put together a consistent scoring run.
Confident Bet
Lokomotiv Moscow have not won in Samara for almost four years – in that time there have been two draws, a heavy defeat (1:5) and a recent Russian Cup exit. The most recent head-to-head was an open, attacking contest, but now the favourites have no need to force the issue, while Krylya Sovetov Samara would be satisfied with a draw if the match brings almost no chances. In that scenario we back Lokomotiv Moscow individual total under, as the visitors usually find it difficult to get a result in Samara.
Prediction: Lokomotiv Moscow under 1.5 goals
Alternative Bet for the Match
In nine of their 12 home matches Krylya Sovetov Samara have seen the total under 2.5 goals land. Without Lokomotiv Moscow's attacking leaders the match is likely to be scrappy and not especially rich in chances. In any case it has a direct impact on the relegation battle, so there will still be plenty of tension and incidents.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
