The first leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final between Lazio and Atalanta will take place on 4 March at the Olimpico in Rome. Lazio vs Atalanta: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Lazio
The Rome side were stronger than Bologna FC 1909 in the previous round (1:1, won 4:1 on penalties). It is worth noting that the team drew in normal time for the first time in their previous 18 Coppa Italia matches (11 wins, 6 defeats). We should also add that Lazio have conceded in five of their last six matches in this tournament. The club have reached the semi-finals for the second time in the last three seasons. The last time the Rome side got past this stage was in 2019, when the team went on to win the trophy.
- No more than two goals were scored in eight of Lazio's last 10 matches in the Coppa Italia.
- On home soil in this tournament, the club have won nine consecutive matches.
- In five of the last seven home matches in the Coppa Italia, the Rome side did not score more than once.
Potential Lazio Lineup (4-5-1)*
Ivan Provedel – Adam Marusic, Mario Gila, Alessio Romagnoli, Luca Pellegrini – Gustav Isaksen, Nicolo Rovella, Daniel Maldini, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, Kenneth Taylor – Pedro.
Defenders Mario Gila, Manuel Lazzari, Samuel Gigot, forwards Mattia Zaccagni, Pedro and midfielder Toma Basic will miss the match through injury.
Atalanta
The Bergamo side brushed aside Juventus in the previous round – 3:0. As a result, the team have won four of their last six matches in the Coppa Italia, with both defeats in that spell ending by the same 0:1 scoreline. Atalanta have also shown outstanding finishing in front of goal: in their last four matches in the national cup, they have scored 13 goals. The team have reached the semi-finals for the second time in the last five editions of the competition, and in that spell they have only managed to get past this stage once – in the 2023/24 season.
- At least one side failed to score in five of Atalanta's last seven Coppa Italia matches.
- Away from home in this tournament, the club have not won in five of their last six matches (2 draws, 3 defeats).
- In four of the last five away matches in the Coppa Italia, the Bergamo side did not score more than once.
Potential Atalanta Lineup (3-4-3)*
Marco Carnesecchi – Giorgio Scalvini, Berat Djimsiti, Onest Ahanor – Giacomo Raspadori, Marten de Roon, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Davide Zappacosta – Charles De Ketelaere, Gianluca Scamacca, Ederson.
Midfielder Charles De Ketelaere and forward Giacomo Raspadori are injured.
Referee
Gianluca Manganiello (Italy)
Matches – 5 (Coppa Italia, 2020/21 - 2023/24);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 15;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 20%.
Lazio vs Atalanta: Match Prediction
Only two weeks have passed since the opponents last met in Rome, when the Bergamo side claimed a 2:0 win. Now the teams must determine the stronger side over two legs for a place in the Coppa Italia final. Given the importance of the match and the teams' statistics, we are unlikely to see a high-scoring game again.
The Rome side have produced phenomenal results in home cup matches: nine straight wins at the Olimpico. It is important to note that across that run the team have never conceded more than once in a match, and on six occasions they kept a clean sheet. However, things have not been so positive in attack. On home soil, Lazio have not scored more than once in five of their last seven matches in the Coppa Italia.
Atalanta have traditionally been poor away from home in the Coppa Italia – just one win in their last six matches. In four of their last five away matches in this tournament, the Bergamo side did not score more than once, even though at home the club have had no issues converting chances. Raffaele Palladino's side will have the second leg in mind, so in the upcoming match the team may settle for a modest return.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI listed is from their previous match in this tournament.
