The first leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores quarter-final between LDU Quito (Ecuador) and São Paulo (Brazil) will take place on September 19 at the Rodrigo Paz Delgado Stadium. LDU Quito vs. São Paulo: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
LDU Quito
Thiago Nunes' team is playing in the Copa Libertadores playoffs for the first time since 2020. In the round of 16, they faced the reigning tournament champions, Botafogo, but were not intimidated by the Brazilians and advanced thanks to a more confident victory at home (2-0 and 0-1). The Ecuadorians last reached the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals in 2019, but then lost to Boca Juniors (0-0 and 0-3). It's also worth noting that the club has not lost in regular time in 7 of their last 9 matches in this tournament (5 wins and 2 draws).
- At least one team failed to score in 9 of LDU Quito's last 10 Copa Libertadores games in regular time.
- No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 8 of the club's last 10 matches in this tournament.
- LDU Quito is unbeaten in their last 5 home matches in regular time in the Copa Libertadores (4 wins and 1 draw).
Predicted lineup for LDU Quito (3-4-2-1)
Gonzalo Valle – Leonel Quinonez, Darío Aimar, Richard Mina – Jose Quinteros, Yeltsin Erique, Fernando Cornejo, Carlos Gruezo – Bryan Ramirez, Lisandro Alzugaray – Michael Estrada.
Defender Richard Mina and midfielders Fernando Cornejo and Carlos Gruezo are suspended for this game.
São Paulo
Hernán Crespo's side remains unbeaten in the current Copa Libertadores campaign. In the group stage, the team easily and confidently won their group, securing 4 wins and 2 draws. They also did not lose in the round of 16, but had to work hard against Atlético Nacional. The Colombians were overcome only in a penalty shootout (0-0 and 1-1, pens 4-3). This is São Paulo's sixth consecutive playoff appearance, matching last season's result when they reached this stage but lost to Botafogo on penalties.
- The Brazilians have not tasted defeat in this tournament in regular time for 17 consecutive matches (9 wins and 8 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 12 of São Paulo's last 14 Copa Libertadores matches.
- The team has not conceded in regular time in their last 6 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for São Paulo (5-3-2)
Enrique Rafael – Nahuel Ferraresi, Sabino, Alan Javier Franco, Cedric Soares, Patrick Lanza – Damian Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Rodriguinho – Diego Ferreira, Luciano.
Referee
Yael Falcón (Argentina)
Matches – 17 (International matches, 2024-2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 77;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 18%.
Match Prediction: LDU Quito vs. São Paulo
Given the performance of both teams in the current Copa Libertadores, we can expect a low-scoring encounter. The visitors are the favorites, looking strong both at home and away. Therefore, the Ecuadorians have no choice but to "park the bus" in front of their goal and aim to play as securely as possible in defense. They are capable of doing so, having not conceded in their last five home matches in this tournament.
The visitors are also adept at defending. The Brazilians are well aware of LDU Quito's strength at home and their ability to swiftly transition from defense to attack, which has helped them secure victories at their stadium. Consequently, São Paulo is likely to play defensively as well, avoiding risks, and would be content with a draw, aiming to achieve their goals at home. The Brazilians have not lost away in 8 Copa Libertadores matches, conceding only 1 goal in regular time during this series.
My prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
