The second leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Conference League Round of 16 between Lugano (Switzerland) and Celje (Slovenia) will be held on March 13 at the Arena Thun. The first match ended 1-0 in favor of Celje. Lugano vs. Celje: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Lugano
The Swiss side suffered a 0-1 defeat in the first match. This loss was the first for Mattia Croci-Torti's team in their last four Conference League fixtures (2 wins, 1 draw). Additionally, Lugano's goal-scoring streak in this tournament, which lasted six matches, came to an end. To advance to the next round, the team needs to defeat the Slovenians by at least two goals. It is worth noting that the club ranks in the top five of the 2024/25 Conference League for clean sheets (3).
- The Swiss team conceded first in 4 of their last 5 matches in this European competition.
- At home in the Conference League, Lugano has not won in 5 of 7 matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
- At least one opponent failed to score in 5 of Lugano's last 7 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Lugano (3-4-3)
Amir Saipi – Antonios Papadopoulos, Lars-Lukas Mai, Albian Hajdari – Mattia Zanotti, Anto Grgic, Milton Valenzuela, Hajj Mahmoud – Mattia Bottani, Renato Steffen, Georgios Koutsias.
Forwards Ignacio Aliseda and Shkelqim Vladi are injured. Defender Antonios Papadopoulos and forward Mattia Bottani are suspended.
Celje
By winning the first match, the Slovenians extended their unbeaten run in the Conference League to four matches (3 wins, 1 draw). To advance to the quarter-finals, Albert Riera's team only needs to avoid defeat in the return leg. If Celje loses by a minimal margin, extra time will be required. Notably, two of their three group stage losses came with a two-goal deficit.
- The club has scored in 9 of their last 10 Conference League games.
- The Slovenians have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches in this tournament (1 win).
- In 5 of their last 7 Conference League matches, Celje conceded at least two goals.
Predicted lineup for Celje (4-3-3)
Ricardo Silva – Lukasz Bejger, Klemen Nemanic, Zan Karnicnik, Juanjo Nieto – Mario Kvesic, Tamar Svetlin, Mark Zabukovnik – Logan Deloye-Chobe, Armandas Kucys, Svit Seslar.
Defender Klemen Nemanic will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Referee
Andris Treimanis (Latvia)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 50;
Average yellow cards per match – 7.1;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 28;
Penalties – 14%.
Match Prediction for Lugano vs. Celje
In the first match, the Slovenians capitalized on one of their few chances, after which Albert Riera's team ceded initiative to the opponent, protecting their slim advantage. It seems that in the return match, Celje will focus on defense from the start. Given that the Swiss team is struggling with scoring, we can expect a low-scoring encounter.
Lugano has failed to score in 4 of their last 5 official matches. This is likely due to injuries to several attacking players. Adding to their lineup issues, one of the club's top scorers in this Conference League campaign is also suspended.
Celje has consistently conceded in this Conference League, but the team has kept clean sheets in their last two matches. However, the Slovenians have not been prolific on the road in this tournament, scoring more than one goal in only 1 of their last 6 away games.
My prediction: Total under 3
