The Matchday 23 Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV will take place on 20 February at 22:30 at the Mewa Arena. Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Mainz 05
By the midway point of the season, Mainz 05 sit 14th in the Bundesliga standings. The home team have shown a steady level of performance despite two defeats in the current calendar year, the most recent of which came last weekend against Borussia Dortmund (0:4). Under new head coach Urs Fischer, the side have avoided defeat in seven of their nine league matches, including a draw with reigning champions Bayern Munich (2:2) and an away win over RB Leipzig (2:1). It is also worth noting that Mainz 05 last lost at home back on Matchday 13, when they were beaten 0:1 by Borussia Monchengladbach.
- In their last seven home Bundesliga matches, the team have not conceded more than one goal.
- The club have scored in six of their previous seven league games.
- In six of Mainz 05's last seven home matches in this competition, no more than three goals have been scored.
Potential Mainz 05 Lineup (3-5-2)*
Daniel Batz – Dominik Kohr, Stefan Bell, Stefan Posch – Silvan Widmer, Jae-sung Lee, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Danny da Costa – Philipp Tietz, Silas Katompa Mvumpa
Benedict Hollerbach, Armindo Sito, as well as defenders Lennard Maloney, Stefan Bell, Maxim Dal, Antoni Caci, midfielder Sota Kawasaki and goalkeeper Robin Zentner will miss the match through injury. Defender Silvan Widmer is suspended.
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV, only recently back in the top flight of German football, have surprisingly managed to establish themselves in ninth place in the standings. Across the previous 10 matchdays, the away team have recorded four wins, four draws and two defeats, and in their most recent match Merlin Polzin's men beat Union Berlin at home – a neighbour in the table – by a 3:2 scoreline. Unlike their home fixtures, Hamburger SV have looked less convincing on the road: in 10 away matches in the 2025/26 season, they have scored only six goals while conceding 18.
- In eight of the last 10 Bundesliga matches involving Hamburger SV, at least two goals have been scored.
- Hamburger SV have scored more than one goal in just one of their previous 10 away league matches.
- In six of Hamburger SV's last seven away matches in this competition, at least one goal has been scored in the second half.
Potential Hamburger SV Lineup (3-4-2-1)*
Daniel Heuer Fernandes – Nicolas Capaldo, Luka Vuskovic, Jordan Torunarigha – Bakery Jatta, Fabio Vieira, Nikolai Remberg, Miro Muheim – Ransford-Yeboah Konigsdorffer, Philippe Otele – Robert Glatzel
Forwards Fabio Balde, Albert Gronbek, Alexandr Rossing-Lelesiit and midfielders Bakery Jatta, Albert Sambi Lokonga will miss the game through injury. Defender Luka Vuskovic is suspended.
Referee
Robin Braun (Germany)
Matches – 6 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 67%.
Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: Match Prediction
Mainz 05 have been strong at home: in the last four matches under Urs Fischer, the team have recorded three wins and one draw. Those results have helped the club gradually move away from the crisis they found themselves in before the arrival of the new head coach. A match against Hamburger SV, who have managed just one win in their 10 away league games, gives Mainz 05 the chance to pull further clear of the relegation zone and edge closer to the middle of the table.
In the current season, the visitors have produced poor results away from home. In 10 matches, the team have scored only six goals, which is the worst tally in the league. Hamburger SV's only away win came against 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 – the club bottom of the standings. Their defence has also been far from convincing: in those same 10 away matches, they have conceded 18 goals – an average of more than 1.7 per game. The problems are particularly noticeable in the final 30 minutes, when fatigue leads to sharp collapses in the middle of the pitch. Weighing up all the pros and cons, we suggest Mainz 05 will not find it difficult to secure a positive result in the upcoming match.
Prediction: Mainz 05 Draw No Bet
* For each team, the starting lineup listed is from their most recent match in this competition.
