The Matchday 15 Bundesliga fixture between Mainz and St. Pauli will take place on December 21 at the MEWA Arena. Mainz vs St. Pauli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
In the last round, Urs Fischer's side produced a shock result by taking a point from Bayern Munich on their turf (2-2). Nevertheless, Mainz extended their winless run in the Bundesliga to ten matches (3 draws, 7 defeats). Additionally, the club has failed to keep a clean sheet in 25 consecutive league games, although for the first time in seven matches they scored more than one goal. In the table, Mainz sit bottom with seven points. It is worth noting that, alongside St. Pauli and Heidenheim, Mainz are among the lowest scorers in the current Bundesliga season (13 goals).
- The club has gone 12 league home games without a win (7 draws, 5 defeats).
- The team conceded no more than one goal in 5 of their last 7 Bundesliga home matches.
- Mainz scored no more than one goal in 6 of their last 7 league matches.
Predicted Mainz lineup (5-4-1)*
Daniel Bach – Sota Kawasaki, Danny da Costa, Kacper Potulski, Stefan Bell, Nikolas Ferachnig – Willum Bøving, Lee Jae-sung, Kaito Sano, Lennard Maloney – Benedict Hollerbach.
First-choice goalkeeper Robin Zentner, defenders Philipp Mwene, Maxim Leitsch, Anthony Caci, and midfielder Sota Kawasaki will miss the match through injury.
St. Pauli
In the previous round Alexander Blessin's side beat Heidenheim at home (2-1). St. Pauli ended a ten-game winless run in the Bundesliga (1 draw, 9 defeats) and, for the first time during that sequence, scored more than once in a match. The Hamburg club sit 16th in the table with 11 points.
- The club has not won in six consecutive Bundesliga away matches (1 draw, 5 defeats).
- The team failed to score more than once in six of their previous away league games.
- St. Pauli conceded in the second half in 6 of their last 8 away Bundesliga matches.
Predicted St. Pauli lineup (3-5-2)*
Nikola Vasil – Karol Mets, Eric Smith, Hauke Wahl – Arkadiusz Pyrka, Jackson Irvine, James Sands, Joel Chima Fujita, Luis Oppi – Matias Pereira Lage, Marten Kars.
Defender David Nemeth is injured. Defender Eric Smith is suspended.
Referee
Matthias Jollenbeck (Germany)
Matches – 5 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including seconds) – 16;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 21%.
Mainz vs St. Pauli: Match Prediction
Neither side boasts a potent attacking unit, which has hindered their scoring returns. Mainz rarely benefit from home advantage: across their last eight Bundesliga home games the club exceeded one goal only twice, and in four of those fixtures they failed to score altogether.
St. Pauli struggle to find the net on the road. In their previous six away league matches the Hamburg side never scored more than once, and in three of those games they were held scoreless. It is also worth noting that in last season's Bundesliga St. Pauli lost to Mainz on Mainz's soil without scoring.
I do not expect an open, high-scoring encounter, so my prediction: Total under 2.5
*Each team's listed lineup reflects their starting XI from their most recent match in this competition.
