The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League group stage between Malmo (Sweden) and Ludogorets (Bulgaria) will take place on September 24 at the Malmo New Stadium. Malmo vs. Ludogorets: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Malmo
Since the 2021/22 season, the club has entered the Champions League from the early stages four times. They reached the main round of the Champions League once and twice qualified for the autumn stage of the Europa League. Last year, the Swedes finished 31st in the group stage standings and exited the European competition (1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses). Notably, they conceded 17 goals, with only two teams having a worse defense in the group stage.
- In their last 16 Europa League matches, the Swedes have won only 3 times in regular time (2 draws and 11 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in 6 of Malmo's last 7 matches in this European competition.
- The team has not won in regular time in 7 of their last 8 home matches in this tournament (1 draw and 6 losses).
Predicted lineup for Malmo (4-4-2)
Robin Olsen – Gabriel Busanello, Colin Rosler, Jens Stryger Larsen, Pontus Jansson – Adrian Skugmar, Otto Rosengren, Lasse Jonsson, Hugo Bolin – Sead Haksabanovic, Daniel Gudjohnsen.
Forward Erik Botheim and midfielder Arnor Sigurdsson are injured.
Ludogorets
The Bulgarians won their championship for the 14th consecutive time and started from the first stage of the elite European competition qualifying cycle. Rui Vitoria's side only reached the third qualifying round of the Champions League before entering the Europa League group stage playoffs. With great difficulty, they managed to overcome Shkendija – 1:2 and 2:1, extra time 2:0. Last season, Ludogorets played in the revamped Europa League format but finished only 33rd, without a single win in the main stage (4 draws and 4 losses).
- In their last 10 Europa League matches, the club has won only once in regular time (4 draws and 5 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 6 of Ludogorets' last 8 games in this tournament.
- The team is on a 5-match winless streak in regular time in away games in this European competition (3 draws and 2 losses).
Predicted lineup for Ludogorets (4-1-4-1)
Sergio Padt – Son, Dinis Almeida, Edwin Kurtulus, Idan Nachmias – Pedro Naressi – Ivaylo Chochev, Caio Vidal, Filip Kaloc, Bernard Tekpetey – Eric Bille.
Defender Olivier Verdon is suspended from team activities. Midfielders Ivan Yordanov, Aguibou Camara, Kwadwo Dua, and defenders Anton Nedyalkov and Idan Nachmias are injured.
Referee
Manfredas Lukyanchukas (Lithuania)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 68;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 27%.
Malmo vs. Ludogorets: Match Prediction
It's difficult to favor either side in this matchup. Both clubs have been unimpressive in recent years on the continental stage and tend to lose more often than not. Even playing at home hasn't helped them secure positive results. Last season, both teams participated in the Europa League group stage and finished in the lower part of the standings.
Malmo averaged 1.25 goals in the main stage of this European competition last season. Meanwhile, the Bulgarians had the worst attacking line in the Europa League 2024/25 group stage, scoring only 4 goals in 8 matches. The Scandinavians have not scored more than 1 goal in 5 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League, while Ludogorets has only scored 3 goals in their last 5 away matches in this tournament. I predict there will be no more than two goals this time as well.
My prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
* The starting lineup for each team is based on their last match.
