The Matchday 1 clash in the Europa League 2025/26 group stage between Malmo (Sweden) and Ludogorets (Bulgaria) will take place on September 24 at the Malmo New Stadium. Malmo vs. Ludogorets: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Malmo
Since the 2021/22 season, the club has started from the early stages of the Champions League four times. In one instance, they reached the main round of the Champions League, and twice they qualified for the autumn stage of the Europa League. Last year, the Swedes finished 31st in the overall stage standings and concluded their European campaign (1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses). It's also worth noting that the team conceded 17 goals (only two teams had worse defenses in the overall stage).
- In their last 16 Europa League matches, the Swedes have only secured 3 wins in regular time (2 draws and 11 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in 6 of Malmo's last 7 matches in this European competition over 90 minutes.
- The Scandinavians have not won in regular time in 7 of their last 8 home matches in this tournament (1 draw and 6 losses).
Predicted lineup for Malmo (4-4-2)
Robin Olsen – Gabriel Busanello, Colin Rösler, Jens Stryger Larsen, Pontus Jansson – Adrian Skugmar, Otto Rosengren, Lasse Jonssen, Hugo Bolin – Sead Haksabanovic, Daniel Gudjohnsen.
Ludogorets
The Bulgarians won their championship for the 14th consecutive time and started from the first stage of the elite European competition qualifying cycle. Rui Mota's team reached only the third qualifying round of the Champions League, after which they found themselves in the playoffs for the overall stage of the Europa League. With great difficulty, the team managed to get past Shkendija – 1:2 and 2:1, extra time 2:0. Last season, Ludogorets already played in the updated Europa League format but finished only 33rd, failing to win a single match in the main stage (4 draws and 4 losses).
- In their last 10 Europa League matches, the club has only secured 1 win in regular time (4 draws and 5 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 6 of Ludogorets' last 8 games in this tournament over 90 minutes.
- The team is on a 5-match winless streak in regular time in away games in this European competition (3 draws and 2 losses).
Predicted lineup for Ludogorets (4-1-4-1)
Sergio Padt – Son, Dinis Almeida, Edwin Kurtulus, Idan Nachmias – Pedro Naressi – Ivaylo Chochev, Caio Vidal, Filip Kaloc, Bernard Tekpetey – Eric Bille.
Referee
Manfredas Lukyanchuk (Lithuania)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 68;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 27%.
Malmo vs. Ludogorets: Match Prediction
It's difficult to favor either side in this matchup. Both clubs have been unimpressive on the continental stage in recent years and mostly suffer defeats. Even playing at home hasn't been enough to secure positive results. Last season, both teams participated in the overall stage of the Europa League and finished in the lower part of the standings.
Malmo averaged 1.25 goals in the main stage of this European competition last season. Meanwhile, the Bulgarians had the worst attacking line in the overall stage of the Europa League 2024/25, scoring only 4 goals in 8 matches. The Scandinavians haven't scored more than 1 goal in 5 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League, while Ludogorets has only managed 3 goals in their last 5 away matches in this tournament. I predict there will be no more than two goals this time.
My prediction – Total under 2.5 goals
