The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Manchester City (England) and Napoli (Italy) will take place on September 18 at the Etihad Stadium. Manchester City vs. Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Manchester City
The club qualified for the group stage by finishing third in the last Premier League campaign. Manchester City is a regular participant in the Champions League and will play in the main draw of this European competition for the 15th consecutive season. Additionally, the team won the Champions League trophy in 2023. However, the previous edition of the tournament was not successful for the English side – they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, losing to Real Madrid on aggregate (2-3, 1-3). Notably, Manchester City has suffered four defeats in their last five Champions League matches. However, the team has lost only once in their previous nine home matches in European competitions against Italian clubs (4 wins, 4 draws).
Before the start of the Champions League, the club signed goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 36 of their last 37 home matches in the Champions League (30 wins, 6 draws).
- The club's players have scored at least twice in 15 of their last 17 home games in this European competition.
- At least four goals have been scored in regular time in 6 of the last 8 home matches for the English side in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Manchester City (4-3-3)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Abdukodir Khusanov, Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake, Matheus Nunes – Tijjani Reijnders, Rodri Hernandez, Bernardo Silva – Jeremy Doku, Erling Haaland, Phil Foden.
Defender Ryan Ait-Nouri, midfielder Mateo Kovacic, forwards Omar Marmoush and Ryan Cherki will miss the match due to injuries.
Napoli
The team won the previous Serie A season and will play in the Champions League group stage. For Napoli, this is their ninth participation in the main draw of the Champions League, with their best achievement being a quarter-final appearance in the 2022/23 season when they lost to AC Milan (0-1, 1-1). Notably, the team has secured only one win in their last five Champions League matches (2 draws, 2 losses). Interestingly, in ten European matches against English clubs, Napoli has never won (3 draws, 7 losses). Meanwhile, the team has suffered only one defeat in eight initial group stage matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 2 draws). It's also worth noting that Antonio Conte has never won against English clubs in the Champions League as a head coach.
Ahead of the Champions League start, the club signed forward Rasmus Højlund.
- No more than three goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of the last 7 away matches for the team in the Champions League.
- The club's players have scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 away games in this European competition.
- Napoli has conceded in regular time in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Napoli (4-5-1)
Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno, Sam Beukema, Leonardo Spinazzola – Matteo Politano, Kevin De Bruyne, Stanislav Lobotka, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Scott McTominay – Rasmus Højlund.
Defender Amir Rrahmani and forward Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 16 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 90;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.6;
Red cards shown – 7;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 38%.
Manchester City vs. Napoli: Match Prediction
Both teams prioritize attacking play and have no issues with scoring, so I expect goals from both sides in this encounter. Manchester City is very effective at home: in their last 18 home matches in the Champions League, the club's players have only failed to score once and have scored fewer than two goals on only three occasions. Meanwhile, they have kept a clean sheet in just two of their last eight home games in this European competition.
Napoli also focuses heavily on attack and regularly scores away: in their last 12 away matches in the Champions League, the team has only failed to score twice. However, their defense is not always flawless: in 9 of their last 12 away matches in this tournament, the Italians have conceded, including at least two goals in five games.
My prediction: Both teams to score – yes
