The first leg of the 2024/25 Europa League playoff between Midtjylland (Denmark) and Real Sociedad (Spain) will take place on February 13 at the MCH Arena in Herning. Midtjylland vs. Real Sociedad: prediction and statistics.
Midtjylland
The Danes finished the main stage of the Europa League in 20th place, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. The team secured a playoff spot thanks to positive results in the last two rounds, defeating Ludogorets away (2-0) and drawing with Fenerbahce at home (2-2). It's worth noting that the average number of goals scored in their matches during the group stage was 2.25 per game (only five clubs had a lower average).
Forward Cho Gue-sung and goalkeeper Elias-Rabn Olafsson are currently sidelined due to injuries.
- The number "2" has appeared in the final score of Midtjylland's last five Europa League matches.
- No more than two goals have been scored in 6 of the last 8 matches played by the Danes in this tournament.
- The club has failed to win in 7 of their last 10 matches in this European competition (3 draws and 4 losses).
Projected lineup for Midtjylland (4-3-3)
Jonas Lössl – Paulinho, Mads Bech Sørensen, Ousmane Diomande, Erik Andersson – Adam Gabriel, Denil Castillo, Oliver Sørensen – Dario Osorio, Adam Buksa, Aral Simsir.
Real Sociedad
The Spaniards finished 13th in the group stage standings, just one point behind the nearest top-8 competitor. The team won half of their matches in the main round, drew once, and lost three times. In the final round, they defeated PAOK (2-0). It's noteworthy that Real Sociedad has reached the playoff stage for the fifth consecutive time, but they have only advanced beyond this stage once.
Defender Álvaro Odriozola will miss the match due to suspension, while his counterpart Amari Traoré is sidelined with an injury.
- The Spanish team's uncompromising streak in this tournament stands at seven matches (4 wins and 3 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals have been scored in 7 of Real Sociedad's last 8 Europa League matches.
- The number "2" has appeared in the final score of 7 of the last 10 away matches played by the Basque side in this European competition.
Projected lineup for Real Sociedad (4-3-3)
Unai Marrero – Aritz Elustondo, Sergio Gómez, Álvaro Odriozola, Nayef Aguerd – Brais Méndez, Martín Zubimendi, Pablo Marín Tejada – Ander Barrenetxea, Sheraldo Becker, Orri Ouskarsen.
Referee
Orel Grinfeld (Israel)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 4;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 13%.
Midtjylland vs. Real Sociedad: Match Prediction
If the Danes hope to advance past the La Liga representative, they need to perform well in the first leg. The team is most dangerous at home, having suffered only three losses in their last 20 European home matches (9 wins and 8 draws). Midtjylland also boasts a solid record in the Europa League, with 9 wins and 5 draws in their last 11 home games, losing only to Sporting and Eintracht during this stretch.
Real Sociedad, on the other hand, has average away results in the Europa League. In their last 15 away matches in this competition, the San Sebastian side has only secured five wins (6 draws and 4 losses). In fact, they have lost their last two away matches in the Europa League. Considering all these factors, I give a slight edge to the hosts in the first game.
My prediction: Midtjylland win or draw
* The lineup for each team is based on their previous match in this tournament.
