The first Champions League 2025/26 play-off match between Monaco (France) and Paris Saint-Germain (France) will take place on 17 February at the Stade Louis II in Fontvieille. Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Monaco
Monaco only made the top 24 of the league phase by the skin of their teeth. The club finished 21st thanks to a draw they earned in the final round against Juventus (0:0). At the same time, it is worth noting that in their last seven Champions League matches, the French side have suffered just one defeat — away to Real Madrid (1:6). This is their second straight appearance in the play-offs of this competition, but last season the club came up short against Benfica on aggregate. It is also hard to ignore the fact that Monaco have lost their previous five two-legged European ties.
- The club have not won nine of their last 11 Champions League matches (five draws and four defeats).
- At home, Monaco are unbeaten in this competition in four straight matches (one win and three draws).
- No more than one goal was scored in five of the previous six Champions League home games for the hosts.
Potential Monaco Lineup (3-4-2-1)
Philipp Koehn — Denis Zakaria, Thilo Kehrer, Wout Faas — Lamine Camara, Aladji Bamba, Maghnes Akliouche, Krepon Diatta — Simon Adingra, Aleksandr Golovin — Folarin Balogun.
Goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is out injured, as are midfielders Pape Cabral, Paul Pogba (left out of the squad) and Takumi Minamino, plus defenders Kassoum Ouattara, Christian Mawissa, Mohammed Salisu and Eric Dier.
Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain only have themselves to blame for failing to qualify directly for the last 16. The team won four of their first five matches and decided that would be more than enough to secure a top-eight finish. However, there were then frustrating draws with Athletic (0:0) and Newcastle (1:1), as well as a surprise defeat to Sporting (1:2). As a result, the Parisians ended up 11th, scoring as many as 21 goals — only three teams scored more in the league phase. It is also worth adding that Paris Saint-Germain have reached the knockouts for the 14th consecutive time. Moreover, last season the team also had to play a play-off tie against a Ligue 1 opponent — the Parisians dismantled Brest across both legs, winning 10:0 on aggregate.
- Paris Saint-Germain have avoided defeat in nine of their last 11 Champions League matches (seven wins and two draws).
- Both teams to score landed in six of the last seven matches for the visitors in this European competition.
- Three or more goals were scored in seven of the previous 10 away games for the French side in this tournament.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov — Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes — Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves — Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Desire Doue, Ousmane Dembele.
Midfielder Fabian Ruiz is a doubt due to injury. Midfielder Quentin Ndjantou is also unavailable through injury.
Referee
Jesus Gil Manzano (Spain)
Matches — 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) — 33;
Average yellow cards per match — 3.7;
Red cards shown — 4;
Fouls per match — 23;
Penalties — 44%.
Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain: Match Prediction
Two-legged European ties between French clubs are a rare occurrence. The most recent one, though, genuinely stunned the Champions League — a year ago, the Parisians beat Brest (7:0 and 3:0). Monaco will now approach this all-French Champions League tie with a degree of caution. Still, despite the sizeable gap in Ligue 1 points (20), we would not take a straightforward away win.
Paris Saint-Germain have become noticeably weaker defensively and have been conceding plenty. The loss of first-choice goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma in the summer has played its part. The capital club have conceded in six of their last seven Champions League matches. In addition, the Parisians have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of their last 11 competitive fixtures.
We expect both teams to score in this match. After all, Monaco have found the net in 14 of their last 17 competitive home games. On top of that, both clubs scored in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings in Ligue 1.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
