The Coppa Italia semi-final first-leg between Napoli and Milan will take place on December 18 at Mrsl Park in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Napoli – Milan: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Napoli
The hosts qualified for the tournament as last season's Serie A champions. This is Napoli's sixth Supercoppa Italiana appearance, and the club has lifted the trophy twice before. They did not feature in last season's edition; in 2023/24 Napoli beat Fiorentina 3-0 in the semi-final but lost to Inter 0-1 in the final. In the current league campaign Antonio Conte's side sit third in Serie A.
- The team have avoided defeat in regulation time in 7 of their last 9 Serie A and Coppa Italia matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
- The club failed to score more than once in 6 of their previous 8 Italian domestic fixtures.
- Napoli have conceded in regulation time in 5 of their last 6 matches across the league and cup.
Projected Napoli starting XI (3-4-3)
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic – Alessandro Buongiorno, Amir Rrahmani, Sam Beukema – Leonardo Spinazzola, Elif Elmaz, Scott McTominay, Giovanni Di Lorenzo – David Neres, Rasmus Hojlund, Noah Lang.
Goalkeeper Alex Meret and midfielders André-Frank Zambo Angissa, Billy Gilmour and Kevin De Bruyne will miss out through injury. Forward Romelu Lukaku is in the squad for the tournament but is not expected to start.
Milan
This will be Milan's 14th Supercoppa Italiana appearance. The Rossoneri qualified for the tournament by reaching last season's Coppa Italia final, where they lost 0-1 to Bologna. Milan are the current holders of the Supercoppa and have won the trophy eight times overall. In 2024/25 they beat Inter 3-2 in the final, and in the current Serie A campaign the club sit second, one point above Napoli.
- The team have not lost in 15 of their last 16 league and cup matches (10 wins, 5 draws).
- Milan have conceded in 7 of their previous 10 domestic fixtures.
- No more than one goal was scored in the second half in 6 and 8 of Milan's most recent Serie A and Coppa Italia matches respectively.
Projected Milan starting XI (3-5-2)
Mike Maignan – Matteo Gabbia, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic – Davide Bartesaghi, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Alexis Saelemaekers – Christian Pulisic, Christopher Nkunku.
Defender Matteo Gabbia and forward Santiago Jiménez will miss the game through injury. Forward Rafael Leão travelled with the squad but will not feature in the semi-final due to injury.
Referee
Luca Zufferli (Italy)
Matches – 9 (Serie A and Coppa Italia, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Average yellow cards per match – 3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 29;
Penalties – 44%.
Napoli vs Milan: Match Prediction
Napoli have struggled for cutting-edge creativity in recent weeks. Across their last eight Serie A and Coppa Italia outings under Antonio Conte they have only twice scored more than one goal in regulation time. On that run the team managed just two goals in 90 minutes across matches with Como (0-0), Cagliari (1-1), Lecce (1-0) and Udinese (0-1).
Milan, under Massimiliano Allegri, are solid results-wise but have not been particularly prolific in attack. In their last eight domestic matches they have scored more than one goal only three times, and those were against sides with less reliable defences – Parma, Sassuolo and Torino. Additionally, in three of the last four Serie A meetings with Napoli the Rossoneri have failed to score more than once.
I do not expect this to be a high-scoring encounter, so my prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
* For each team the starting lineup reflects the side that started their previous match.
