The second leg of the English League Cup semi-final between Newcastle and Arsenal will take place on February 5 at St James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne. The first leg ended 2-0 in favor of Newcastle. Newcastle vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Newcastle
Eddie Howe's side surprised everyone in the first leg of this two-legged tie, defeating the Gunners 2-0 on their home turf. To reach the final, the team needs to avoid losing by more than one goal. In the current English League Cup campaign, Newcastle has already knocked out three Premier League teams, eliminating Brentford, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest. If Newcastle manages to overcome Arsenal, they will reach the final for the third time in their history.
Forwards Harvey Barnes, Joelinton, and Callum Wilson, along with defender Jamaal Lascelles, will miss the match due to injuries.
- The team is unbeaten in regular time in their last eight matches in this tournament (6 wins, 2 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 11 of Newcastle's last 14 League Cup games.
- The club is on a 7-match winning streak at home in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Newcastle (4-3-3)
Martin Dubravka – Lewis Hall, Valentino Livramento, Sven Botman, Dan Burn – Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Joseph Willock – Jacob Murphy, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon.
Arsenal
The Londoners last won the English League Cup in 1993. Repeating that success will be challenging: to reach the final, they need to defeat their opponent with a big score on their home ground. If the match ends in a two-goal victory for the Gunners, a penalty shootout will be held. Notably, Mikel Arteta's side has suffered only two defeats by more than one goal at the official level this season (previously losing 0-2 away to Bournemouth in the Premier League).
Forwards Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka, along with defenders Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ben White, are sidelined due to injuries.
- At least two goals have been scored in 12 of Arsenal's last 14 League Cup games.
- At least one team failed to score in 6 of the Gunners' last 7 away matches in this tournament.
- In their last 10 away games in this Cup, the Londoners have lost only once in 90 minutes (5 wins, 4 draws).
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – William Saliba, Thomas Partey, Jurrien Timber, Gabriel Magalhães – Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Miles Lewis-Skelly – Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz.
Referee
Simon Hooper (England)
Matches – 16 (Premier League, English Cups, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 68;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 6%.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
Eddie Howe's side performs well at home, scoring frequently and rarely losing. However, this season, Newcastle has faltered in league matches against Brighton, West Ham, and Bournemouth, so the Gunners still have a chance to make a comeback, and to do so, they need to score.
In 15 of their last 17 away matches in the Premier League and English League Cup, Arsenal has scored, but they have also conceded in 7 of their last 8 away games in both competitions. Meanwhile, Newcastle has scored in their last eight games at St James' Park in the Premier League and English Cups. In six of those matches, they have scored at least two goals.
I predict that the second leg will be more eventful than the first, so my prediction: Both teams to score – yes
