The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Newcastle United and Barcelona will take place on 10 March at St James' Park. Newcastle United vs Barcelona: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Newcastle United
Newcastle United have reached the Champions League round of 16 for the first time in their history. They got this far via the play-offs, where they beat Qarabag twice (aggregate score 9:3). Their current unbeaten run in this tournament has now reached five matches (three wins, two draws). Overall, since the start of the current European season, the club have suffered only two defeats, although the first of those came in a home clash with Barcelona (1:2) back in September, when the sides met on matchday one of the league phase. Since then, in the Champions League, the home team have claimed four straight home wins, and on three occasions Newcastle United have won to nil.
- The club have conceded in five of their last six Champions League matches.
- Newcastle United’s scoring run in this tournament has lasted 12 matches.
- The home side have avoided defeat in 30 of their previous 32 home matches in European knockout ties (22 wins, eight draws).
Barcelona
During the league phase, Barcelona lacked consistency for a long stretch, but they still broke into the top eight and avoided the play-offs thanks to a strong finish with a three-match winning run. Before that, Barcelona had won only two of their first five matches of this European season. In the end, having collected 16 points, the club finished fifth in the standings. Now they will play in the Champions League round of 16 for the third year in a row. Notably, across their last eight matches in this tournament, the visitors have not kept a single clean sheet, but they have scored in every game except the away trip to Chelsea (0:3). It is also worth noting that the side have started with a win in five of their last six two-legged Champions League ties against English clubs.
- Barcelona have avoided defeat in five of their last six Champions League matches (four wins, one draw).
- The club have scored at least two goals in four of their last five away matches in this tournament.
- Both teams have scored in 10 of the Spaniards’ previous 11 Champions League games.
Potential Barcelona Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Joan Garcia – Joao Cancelo, Pau Cubarsi, Eric Garcia, Gerard Martin – Fermin Lopez, Pedri – Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha – Ferran Torres.
Defenders Jules Kounde, Alex Balde and Andreas Christensen, as well as midfielders Gavi and Frenkie de Jong, are unavailable due to injury.
Referee
Marco Guida (Italy)
Matches – 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 32;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.9;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match on average – 23;
Penalties – 9%.
Newcastle United vs Barcelona: Match Prediction
The sides are delivering solid results and combining that with entertaining football. Newcastle United are unbeaten in five Champions League matches (three wins, two draws), although four of those five games saw both teams score. We should add that four of those five matches went over, and overall at least three goals have been scored in eight of the home side’s last 10 matches in this European season. That same mark has also been reached in four of the club’s last five home games in the Champions League.
Barcelona can generally be described as one of the most entertaining clubs in Europe. Regardless of the outcome, the club’s matches regularly prove to be bright and high-scoring affairs. It is enough to say that in 10 of the Spaniards’ previous 11 Champions League matches, both teams have found the net. At least three goals have, in fact, been scored in 13 straight Barcelona games in this tournament.
These trends were reflected in the recent head-to-head meeting as well, which ended with Barcelona winning 2:1.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes + Over 2.5 goals
