The English League Cup Round of 16 clash between Newcastle United and Chelsea is set to take place on October 30 at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne. Newcastle United vs. Chelsea: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh (Australia)
Matches – 7 (FA Cup and English League Cup, 2022/23–2024/25);
Yellow cards (including second yellows) – 18;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.6;
Red cards – 3;
Fouls per match on average – 19;
Penalties – 14%.
Projected lineups for the match Newcastle United vs. Chelsea
Newcastle United (4-3-3): Martin Dubravka – Emil Krafth, Fabian Schär, Lloyd Kelly, Valentino Livramento – Joseph Willock, Sean Longstaff, Joelinton – Harvey Barnes, William Osula, Miguel Almirón.
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Filip Jorgensen – Renato Veiga, Benoît Badiashile, Axel Disasi, Malo Gusto – Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Cesare Casadei – João Félix, Mykhailo Mudryk, Pedro Neto – Christopher Nkunku.
Each team's lineup is indicated from their last match in this tournament.
Newcastle United
In the past four seasons, the club reached the final once (in 2023), where they lost to Manchester United (0-2), and also made it to the quarterfinals twice. Last season, Eddie Howe's men faced Chelsea in the quarterfinals and were defeated in a penalty shootout (1:1, 2:4 on penalties). In the current campaign, Newcastle narrowly advanced past Nottingham Forest (1:1, 4:3 on penalties) and AFC Wimbledon (1:0).
- The club has not lost in regular time in 12 of their last 13 English League Cup games (8 wins and 4 draws).
- At least one team failed to score within 90 minutes in 8 of Newcastle's last 11 matches in this tournament.
- No more than three goals were scored in regular time in the club's last 15 matches in this Cup.
Chelsea
Statistics from the last nine seasons show that if Chelsea advance past this stage of the League Cup, they tend to reach the final. This happened in the current and the season before last – in both instances, Chelsea drew in regular time in the final but ultimately lost to Liverpool. In the 2018/19 season, the team lost to Manchester City in the final, and once again, the winner was not determined in 90 minutes. Enzo Maresca's side started their current cup run with a convincing victory over Barrow (5:0).
- In their last 17 League Cup matches, Chelsea only lost twice in regular time (9 wins and 6 draws).
- A maximum of three goals were scored within 90 minutes in 14 of Chelsea's last 16 matches in this Cup.
- Exactly one or two goals were scored in regular time in the club's previous six away matches in this tournament.
Newcastle United vs. Chelsea: Match Prediction
I believe that the London team will advance. Enzo Maresca's men are in good form, and if they lose at the official level, it's to opponents who are competing for the Premier League title. Since mid-February, Chelsea has only lost three times in regular time in the Premier League and the League Cup – to Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City. Newcastle, on the other hand, has been unimpressive, currently sitting mid-table in the Premier League and scoring much less compared to previous seasons.
Chelsea also has the edge in head-to-head encounters. In the last 20 meetings in the Premier League and both domestic Cups, the Londoners have only lost 4 times (13 wins and 3 draws). I would also like to note the depth of the bench. The capital team has two full squads, as we can see from Chelsea's play in the Conference League and the Premier League. Enzo Maresca can afford to lose key players and rotate the squad, but Newcastle has some issues in this area. Therefore, I think the visitors will physically be stronger than their opponents.
My prediction is "Chelsea to advance to the quarterfinals – yes" with odds of
