The return leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Paris Saint-Germain (France) and Monaco (France) will take place on 25 February at the Allianz Stadium in Turin. The score in the first leg was 3:2 in favour of Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Paris Saint-Germain
The reigning European champions produced a strong result in the first leg. They managed to win away from home – 3:2. Paris Saint-Germain had a huge advantage throughout the match and were clearly on top in several aspects of the game: xG – 3.09:1.20, shots – 30:7, shots on target – 10:4, and even corners – 8:1. Now the home team will be happy with a draw in the return fixture to reach the Champions League last 16 for the 14th straight time. Interestingly, before this match, the Parisians had not won three consecutive games in this competition (two draws and one defeat).
- The Parisians have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 12 matches in this tournament (eight wins and two draws).
- Both teams to score has landed in seven of Paris Saint-Germain's last eight Champions League games.
- At least three goals have been scored in nine of the club's previous 11 matches in this competition.
Potential Paris Saint-Germain Lineup (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes – Warren Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Joao Neves – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, Goncalo Ramos.
Due to injuries, midfielders Quentin Ndjantu and Fabian Ruiz will miss out, along with forwards Ousmane Dembele and Senny Mayulu.
Monaco
Monaco put up a strong fight against their more illustrious domestic rivals until the interval. At the start of the second half the score was 2:2, but early after the restart the away team were reduced to 10 men and ultimately lost (2:3). Now they need to win at Parc des Princes by two or more goals. If they manage to win by one goal, the match will go to extra time. It is also worth noting that the French club have now gone three Champions League games without a win (one draw and two defeats). In addition, a year ago Monaco went out at this stage, losing by one goal to Benfica (3:3 and 0:1).
- The team have failed to win 10 of their previous 12 matches in this tournament (five draws and five defeats).
- Away from home, Monaco have not won six of their last seven Champions League matches (two draws and four defeats).
- Three or more goals have been scored in six of the visitors' previous seven away games in this competition.
Potential Monaco Lineup (4-2-3-1)
Philipp Koehn – Vanderson de Oliveira, Jordan Teze, Wout Faes, Caio Henrique – Lamine Camara, Denis Zakaria – Maghnes Akliouche, Simon Adingra, Krepin Diatta – Folarin Balogun.
Due to injuries, goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is unavailable, along with midfielders Pape Cabral, Paul Pogba (not included in the squad) and Takumi Minamino, plus defenders Kassoum Ouattara, Christian Mawissa, Mohammed Salisu and Eric Dier. Midfielder Aleksandr Golovin will miss the match through suspension.
Referee
Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 34;
Yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 1;
Fouls per match – 28;
Penalties – 25%.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco: Match Prediction
The first leg produced five goals, so we expect the return fixture to be no less entertaining and high-scoring. In Fontvieille, the fans saw two braces – from Folarin Balogun and Desire Doue – as well as a missed penalty from Vitinha. It is also interesting that Doue has already scored four goals in five Champions League matches. We are especially expecting a goalscoring display from the hosts, who have recorded seven wins and two draws in their last nine home matches across this competition and Ligue 1, scoring at least three goals on six occasions.
Overall, the home side could score three or more goals again in this match. Monaco are not as strong away from home as they are on their own ground, and in their last seven away Champions League matches they have recorded just one win, while conceding three or more goals five times. In addition, Paris Saint-Germain have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings. These sides have produced particularly entertaining encounters in Paris: across the last 10 official meetings there, Paris Saint-Germain have won seven times, while four or more goals have been scored on six occasions. For that reason, we will suggest a combined bet on a home win and a high-scoring match.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain to win + Over 3.5 goals
