The first leg of the Copa Libertadores 2025 Round of 16 between Penarol (Uruguay) and Racing (Argentina) will take place on August 13 at the Campeón del Siglo Stadium in Montevideo. Penarol vs. Racing: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Penarol
Diego Aguirre's men advanced to the playoffs from second place in Group H, collecting 11 points and only losing the top spot to Velez Sarsfield on goal difference. As a result, the club will participate in the Copa Libertadores playoffs for only the second time since 2011. The team is currently on a five-match unbeaten streak in this tournament (3 wins, 2 draws). Additionally, the Uruguayans have kept clean sheets in four of these matches. Penarol conceded only four goals in the group stage, ranking among the top defensive teams.
During the summer transfer window, midfielder Emiliano Trindade joined the team. Defender Emanuel Gularte and forward Matias Arezo were also brought in on loan.
- The team has not lost in regular time in their last 22 home matches in the Copa Libertadores (18 wins, 4 draws).
- The club has scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 home games in this tournament during regular time.
- The Uruguayans have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 9 home matches in regular time in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Penarol (4-5-1)
Martin Campana – Javier Mendez, Emanuel Gularte, Nahuel Herrera, Maximiliano Olivera – Javier Cabrera, Ignacio Sosa, Leonardo Fernandez, Emiliano Trindade, Diego Garcia – Maximiliano Silvera.
Racing
Gustavo Costas' side performed confidently in the group stage, collecting 13 points in Group E and finishing eight points ahead of their nearest rival. Racing is participating in the Copa Libertadores for the eighth time in the 21st century and has always reached the playoffs. However, the club has never progressed beyond the quarter-finals. Racing has won their last three Copa Libertadores matches without conceding a goal. They also finished the group stage with a goal difference of +11, second only to Palmeiras (+13).
In the summer, the club signed defender Franco Pardo, as well as forwards Tomas Conechny, Duvan Vergara, and Elias Torres. Forward Maximiliano Salas left the team.
- The Argentinians have not lost in regular time in 10 of their last 12 away matches in the Copa Libertadores (6 wins, 4 draws).
- At least three goals have been scored in 5 of their last 7 away games in this tournament during regular time.
- The team scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 9 of their last 12 away matches in regular time in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Racing (4-3-3)
Facundo Cambeses – Facundo Mura, Santiago Sosa, Agustin Garcia, Franco Pardo – Juan Nardoni, Agustin Almendra, Ignacio Rodriguez – Tomas Conechny, Duvan Vergara, Adrian Martinez.
Main goalkeeper Gabriel Arias, midfielder Federico Saracho, and forward Luciano Vietto will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Rafael Klaus (Brazil)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 17;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 33%.
Prediction for Penarol vs. Racing
Playoff matches are known for their intensity, with neither side willing to take unnecessary risks. I expect a cautious game in this encounter, especially considering both teams' defensive capabilities. Penarol conceded only four goals in the group stage and have allowed opponents to score more than once in only 1 of their last 12 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Racing showcased even better defensive prowess in the group stage, conceding just three goals in six matches. Additionally, the team has been effective in neutralizing opponents' attacks in away games in the Copa Libertadores, allowing more than one goal in only 2 of their last 12 away matches. Racing kept a clean sheet in half of these games.
I don't expect many goals in this match. My prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
* Each team's starting lineup from their previous match is indicated.
