The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 between PSV (Netherlands) and Arsenal (England) will take place on March 4 at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. PSV vs. Arsenal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
PSV
The appearance of Peter Bosz's team at this advanced stage of the Champions League was unexpected. The Dutch side exchanged home victories with Juventus in the playoffs, each winning 2-1. PSV advanced thanks to a goal scored in extra time in the return leg in Eindhoven. The club has reached the Round of 16 in this European competition for the second consecutive year and the third time in the last nine years. Last season, PSV was halted at this stage, losing to Borussia Dortmund on aggregate (1-1 and 0-2).
- The club has not lost in regular time in 7 of their last 9 Champions League games (5 wins and 2 draws).
- Both teams scored in 8 of PSV's last 10 matches in this tournament.
- The Dutch have an 11-match home scoring streak in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for PSV (4-3-3)
Walter Benítez – Adamo Nagalo, Richard Ledezma, Ryan Flamingo, Mauro Júnior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perisic, Luuk de Jong, Noa Lang.
Defender Sergiño Dest, midfielder Malik Tillman, and forward Ricardo Pepi will miss the match due to injuries.
Arsenal
The London club finished third in the group stage of the Champions League, securing six wins in eight matches (1 draw and 1 loss). It is also noteworthy that the club conceded only three goals in the main stage of the tournament (only Inter had a better defense, conceding just one goal). Last season, Mikel Arteta's side reached the quarter-finals, where they were eliminated by Bayern Munich on aggregate (2-2 and 0-1).
- The Londoners have won 6 of their last 7 matches in the Champions League.
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Arsenal's previous 9 matches in this tournament.
- The English side did not concede in the second half of 7 of their last 8 games in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Arsenal (4-3-3)
David Raya – Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Magalhães, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber – Thomas Partey, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard – Mikel Merino, Ethan Nwaneri, Leandro Trossard.
Forwards Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, and Bukayo Saka, as well as defender Takehiro Tomiyasu, will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Jesús Gil Manzano (Spain)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 17%.
PSV vs. Arsenal: Match Prediction
I believe bookmakers are overestimating the Gunners' chances in the upcoming match. The Dutch have not lost in regular time at home in the Champions League for 11 matches, securing 7 wins and 4 draws. It is also worth noting that the team defeated another English club, Liverpool, 3-2, at the end of the main round on their home turf.
It's important to mention that the upcoming opponents have faced each other four times in the Champions League and Europa League. The English side won "clean" victories at home, but in the Netherlands, the Gunners faced a tough reception – 1 draw and 1 loss. Additionally, Arsenal has only defeated Sporting and modest Girona in their last seven away matches in the Champions League, with two draws and three "clean" losses. It's also important to note that Arsenal has lineup issues, with the loss of four attacking players already negatively impacting the club's results.
All these factors lead me to predict a “PSV win or draw”.
