The Matchday 3 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between PSV (Netherlands) and Napoli (Italy) will take place on October 21 at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. PSV vs. Napoli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
PSV
Peter Bosz's side began their current Champions League campaign with a home defeat to tournament newcomers Union Saint-Gilloise (1-3). However, PSV managed to partially redeem themselves in the second round by sharing points with Bayer Leverkusen on their turf (1-1). Nonetheless, the club has not won in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses) and has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last ten consecutive games. PSV has one point and sits 27th in the standings. Notably, PSV has not lost in 9 of their last 12 home matches against Italian clubs in European competitions (7 wins, 2 draws).
- The club has not lost in 11 of their last 13 home matches in the Champions League (7 wins, 4 draws).
- At least four goals have been scored in 5 of the team's last 6 home matches in this European competition.
- PSV has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 11 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for PSV (4-3-3)
Matej Kovar – Anass Salah-Eddine, Ryan Flamingo, Jarek Gasirowski, Mauro Junior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perisic, Guus Til, Dennis Man.
Defenders Wessel Koon and Kilian Sildillia, as well as forward Ruben van Bommel, are injured.
Napoli
Antonio Conte's side secured their first win in the current Champions League campaign in the last round, defeating Sporting 2-1 at home. As a result, Napoli achieved only their second victory in their last seven Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses). Additionally, Napoli has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 12 matches in this tournament. With three points, the team is 19th in the standings.
- The club's uncompromising away streak in the Champions League stands at 11 matches (5 wins, 6 losses).
- The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away matches in this European competition.
- Napoli has conceded in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Napoli (4-5-1)
Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Sam Beukema, Mathias Olivera – Leonardo Spinazzola, Billy Gilmour, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, David Neres – Lorenzo Lucca.
Defender Amir Rrahmani, midfielder Stanislav Lobotka, and forward Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Daniel Siebert (Switzerland)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25-2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 74;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 13%.
PSV vs. Napoli: Match Prediction
At home, the Dutch team tends to play offensively regardless of the level of opposition. Thanks to their open style, PSV regularly finds the net: in their last 13 home matches in the Champions League, the team has never left the field without scoring. Moreover, in seven of those games, they scored at least twice. However, PSV's defense is not reliable: in 13 of their last 15 home matches in this European competition, they failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding a total of 10 goals in their last two home Champions League matches.
Napoli is also not accustomed to sitting back and focuses heavily on creating chances. In their last 13 away matches in the Champions League, Napoli failed to score in only three games, and in six of those matches, the team netted at least two goals. Meanwhile, the Italians often suffer from defensive errors: during the same period, Napoli kept a clean sheet only three times, conceding a total of nine goals in their last three away matches in the Champions League.
I expect this to be a high-scoring affair, so my prediction is: Total over 2.5 goals
