The second leg of the Champions League 2025/26 qualifying playoff between Qarabag (Azerbaijan) and Ferencvaros (Hungary) will take place on August 27 at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. The first leg ended with a 3-1 victory for Qarabag. Qarabag vs. Ferencvaros: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Qarabag
Gurban Gurbanov's side defeated the Hungarians 3-1 in the previous match. The Azerbaijanis conceded first, but three goals in the second half secured their fifth consecutive win in the Champions League. Qarabag's attacking prowess in the current tournament is noteworthy, with the team already netting 13 goals. To advance to the main stage, the club can afford to lose by a minimal margin in the return leg.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 5 of Qarabag's last 7 Champions League matches.
- The team has not lost in 12 of their last 14 home matches in the Champions League (8 wins, 4 draws).
- In 7 of their last 9 home games in this tournament, Qarabag has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Marko Jankovic – Nariman Ahundzade.
Ferencvaros
The defeat in the previous meeting ended the Hungarians' five-match unbeaten run in the Champions League (3 wins, 2 draws). During this stretch, the team had already conceded three goals. Moreover, Ferencvaros kept a clean sheet in only two of their last eight Champions League encounters. To reach the main tournament grid, Robbie Keane's team needs to win by at least three goals. If the club defeats the Azerbaijanis by exactly two goals, extra time will be required.
- The team has not lost in 7 of their last 8 away Champions League matches (3 wins, 4 draws).
- In 5 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League, the Hungarians conceded exactly 1 or 2 goals.
- At least one goal was scored in both halves in 8 of Ferencvaros's last 9 matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Ferencvaros (3-5-2)
Denes Dibusz – Gabor Szalai, Stefan Gartenmann, Toon Raemaekers – Callum O'Dowda, Chebrail Makreckis, Bence Eteves, Alex Toth, Gavriel Kanichowsky – Barnabas Varga, Lenny Joseph.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches – 19 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 47%.
Qarabag vs. Ferencvaros: Match Prediction
The first match was a goal-fest, and I expect the return leg to be no different. The Hungarians will be forced to attack, and Robbie Keane's side has no issues converting chances. Ferencvaros has already scored 10 times in this Champions League campaign, but they have also conceded 7 goals. The team has allowed goals in 20 of their last 23 away games in the Champions League.
The Azerbaijanis have been even more prolific in the 2025/26 Champions League, scoring 13 goals. In the upcoming match, Gurban Gurbanov's side won't need to go all out in attack. They have a comfortable advantage, which they can extend by catching the Hungarians on the counterattack. Qarabag has scored in 6 of their last 7 home Champions League matches, netting 4-5 goals in some of these games.
My prediction: Total over 2.5 goals
