The second leg of the third qualifying round of the 2025/26 Champions League between Qarabag (Azerbaijan) and Shkendija (North Macedonia) will take place on August 12 at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. The first match ended with a 1-0 victory for Qarabag. Qarabag vs. Shkendija: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Qarabag
The Azerbaijani side achieved a favorable result in the first leg, defeating the Balkan team 1-0 away. This marked the third consecutive clean sheet victory for the Caucasus club in the Champions League. To advance to the playoffs of this European competition, Gurban Gurbanov's team needs to avoid defeat at home. Notably, Qarabag has not reached the autumn phase of the Champions League since 2017.
- The Azerbaijani team's uncompromising series in regular time in this tournament includes 9 matches (6 wins and 3 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in the last 5 Qarabag matches in the Champions League.
- The Caucasus side has not lost in regular time in 11 of their last 13 home matches in this European competition (7 wins and 4 draws).
Predicted lineup for Qarabag (4-4-2)
Mateusz Kochalski – Behlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Toral Bayramov – Abdellah Zoubir, Kady, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho – Nariman Akhundzade, Emmanuel Addai.
Shkendija
For the Macedonian side, reaching the third qualifying round of the Champions League is already a significant achievement. To progress further in the most prestigious European competition after their defeat, the Balkans need to defeat their opponent on their home turf by at least two goals. If Shkendija wins by a minimal margin, extra time will be played.
- The club has not won in regular time in 6 of their last 8 Champions League matches (2 draws and 4 losses).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 4 of Shkendija's last 5 matches in this tournament.
- The team has not scored more than 1 goal in regular time in 6 of their last 7 away matches in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Shkendija (4-2-3-1)
Bubacarr Gaye – Aleksandar Trumchi, Ronaldo Webster, Imiran Fetai, Klisman Tsake – Adamu Alhassan, Reshat Ramadani – Endrit Krasniqi, Fabrice Tamba, Liridon Latifi – Besart Ibraimi.
Referee
Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 29%.
Qarabag vs. Shkendija: Match Prediction
The Caucasus team should advance against this opponent. Qarabag's players are noticeably stronger than the Balkans, and the hosts have extensive experience in European competitions, including the main stages. Gurban Gurbanov's team can play the second leg based on the result of the first match: they can take fewer risks and catch the Macedonians on counterattacks. It's also worth noting that the Azerbaijanis have scored in 12 of their last 14 Champions League matches.
In the first game of this matchup, the teams showed their attacking intent, as evidenced by the shot statistics – 19:17 in favor of Qarabag. I think both sides will continue to threaten each other's goals in the upcoming match, leading to high scoring. Additionally, when Shkendija faced strong opponents in Champions League qualifiers, they consistently lost by a large margin away from home.
Considering all these factors, my prediction: Qarabag Individual Total Over 1.5
