The first leg of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 clash between Real Madrid (Spain) and Atletico Madrid (Spain) will take place on March 4 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
The team comfortably dispatched Manchester City in the playoff matches, defeating the English side in both legs (3-2 and 3-1). This extended Madrid's winning streak in the Champions League to five matches. Notably, Carlo Ancelotti's men have scored at least three goals in each of these games. Interestingly, this marks Real's 29th consecutive appearance in the Round of 16 of the tournament. Additionally, in the last four seasons, the club has won the Champions League twice and reached the semi-finals twice.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Real Madrid's last 8 matches in this European competition.
- At least four goals have been scored in 6 of Real's last 8 Champions League encounters.
- Two or more goals have been scored in the second half in the club's last six matches in this tournament.
Expected lineup for Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Thibaut Courtois – Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rüdiger, Raul Asensio, David Alaba – Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Brahim Diaz – Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo Goes, Kylian Mbappe.
Defenders Jesus Vallejo, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos, are sidelined due to injuries. Midfielder Jude Bellingham will miss the match due to suspension.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side finished fifth in the overall stage of the Champions League, recording 6 wins and 2 losses. By reaching the top eight, the club avoided the playoff matches and advanced directly to the Round of 16. Notably, the Madrid side has reached this stage of the tournament six times in the last seven seasons. It is also worth mentioning that in the previous Champions League campaign, the team was halted in the quarter-finals, losing to Borussia Dortmund over two legs.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 9 of Atletico's last 11 Champions League matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in 90 minutes in Atletico's last 11 matches in this tournament.
- In 6 of the club's last 7 European matches, at least two goals were scored in the second half.
Expected lineup for Atletico Madrid (4-4-2)
Jan Oblak – Nahuel Molina, Clément Lenglet, Jose Maria Gimenez, Robin Le Normand – Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo De Paul, Giuliano Simeone, Samuel Lino – Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.
Defender Cesar Azpilicueta and midfielder Koke will miss the match due to injuries.
Referee
Clement Turpin (France)
Matches – 11 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 31;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 55%.
Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's men are considered the underdogs in this tie. However, I believe they have a good chance to progress past their city rivals or at least avoid defeat in the first leg. Atletico, like their opponents, are on a 5-match winning streak in the Champions League. Both teams are close in the La Liga standings, with Atletico boasting a much stronger defense, which I think will help the visitors contain the hosts' attacking threat in the upcoming clash.
Interestingly, Real has not defeated their city rivals in regular time in their last eight official meetings (seven of these encounters ended in a draw). Therefore, I believe it's wise to back the visitors with a handicap in the first game. Atletico has not lost to Real with a handicap (+1) in their last 10 head-to-head meetings in La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Spanish Super Cup. Additionally, in this century, the Madrid sides have faced each other six times in the Champions League, with Real only once managing to defeat their rivals by a margin of two or more goals in 90 minutes.
My prediction: Atletico Madrid with a handicap (+1)
